The conversation: Can the Celtics repeat their formula and repeat as NBA champions?

I’m not going to say that the 2023-24 Boston Celtics solved modern basketball, but they were the type of team that makes you ask whether such a thing is possible. They started four perimeter players who could dribble, pass and shoot, plus a 7-foot-2 sniper who cashed 30-footers. All of those perimeter guys were elite defenders who stood between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-8 and were comfortable switching up or down. The big sniper doubled as a rim protector who could capably execute multiple defensive coverages, as could his backup, a five-time All-Star going after his first title in Year 17.

Boston didn’t change the game by going after switchable defenders who can do everything, and they were far from the first team to take advantage of 5-out spacing. Everybody has been trying to build rosters like this for years, including the Celtics themselves, who came up short in the 2022 Finals and the 2023 playoffs. With Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis in the picture, though, they had the league’s most stacked starting five and the lineup that best exemplified the modern ideal: Everyone’s a threat on offense, no one’s a liability on defense.

Now they’re back — except for Porzingis, who is recovering from offseason surgery — and they haven’t changed much. Jayson Tatum’s jumper looks better in the preseason. Baylor Scheierman could conceivably crack the rotation. If Boston doesn’t repeat, it won’t be because its formula is any less powerful, but because its competition is more so. In the East, the Sixers got Paul George, the Knicks got Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges, the Magic got Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and the Bucks and Cavs got healthy. There are a slew of worthy challengers in the West, too, including a team in OKC whose roster is constructed similarly. Can any of these teams solve the Celtics?

The state of play

Last year: Including the playoffs, the Celtics played 101 games and won 80 of them. They had a plus-11.7 point differential in the regular season (No. 1 on offense, No. 2 on defense), spaced the floor better than anybody ever has and manipulated matchups on both ends by trying some outright weird stuff. Holiday and Porzingis fit in exactly as anticipated, and they overcame Porzingis’ postseason injuries in part because their depth held up better than many expected, albeit mostly against opponents that were shorthanded themselves. Stevens won Executive of the Year, Tatum made the All-NBA First Team, White and Holiday made the All-Defensive Second Team and Brown won Finals MVP.

The offseason: Tatum, Holiday and White all won gold medals, and there was nothing weird about the experience for any of them. Brown didn’t win a gold medal, and there was nothing weird about that either. Tatum, White and Hauser all signed extensions, and one of them was the biggest in NBA history. Kornet was the first player off the board in free agency because he thought this would be funny, and both Xavier Tillman and Neemias Queta re-signed, too. Scheierman, picked No. 30, seems like an ideal fit, at least on offense.

Best case for 2024-25: The defending champs are so dominant without Porzingis that, when he comes back, multiple teams try to trade for Kornet; after another 60-win season, they eliminate the full-strength Bucks (the No. 8 seed because of an injury-plagued regular season), Knicks and Sixers in the most impressive playoff run imaginable, then capture Banner 19 with another gentleman’s sweep. 

Worst case 2024-25: Tatum’s shooting form is a seasonlong subject of discussion, as are the health of Porzingis’ ankle and Horford’s lateral mobility; all three seem fine at some points and not fine whatsoever at others, with the Celtics’ deeply disappointing second-round series against the Sixers landing squarely in the latter category.

The conversation

Celtics believer: What a delightful collection of talent there is on this team. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown would be fantastic in any context, but with all the space in the world and top-tier defenders around them, they can be the best versions of themselves. Any contender would love to have a Jrue Holiday or Derrick White type, and Boston has both of them! I’m encouraged, too, by the news that Kristaps Porzingis is recovering from surgery faster than expected. Now it’s just about seeing how the team jells and responds to adversity. I really feel like the Celtics could win a championship, don’t you?

Celtics skeptic: Uh, they just did. There was a parade and everything. Why are you talking about the defending champs as if last season never happened?

Celtics believer: Didn’t you get the memo? The Celtics aren’t “defending” anything. This is a new season, and they have a new goal, which they will attack with the ferocity and focus of a pod of killer whales. As far as I’m concerned, last season never happened. All we have is the present moment, and Joe Mazzulla has made sure that his team understands this.

Celtics skeptic: Oh no, you’ve been fully Mazzulla-pilled. Does this mean you won’t acknowledge that there could be some issues here? Porzingis is a massive question mark, Al Horford is 38 and the biggest offseason addition was … Baylor Scheierman, aka Sam Hauser 2.0? I’m not trying to put an asterisk on the title or anything, but the Celtics were fortunate last season. They had an easy-peasy path to the Finals, and, when they got there, they didn’t have to face the team that was best equipped to beat them, as Tatum himself has acknowledged. I suspect the road will be rougher this time, and I also wonder what’s going to happen to this core in a year or two. The team is for sale, and the payroll is probably not sustainable. This uncertainty can create a sense of unease that affects what happens on the court.

Celtics believer: Bring it on! Uncertainty is standard in the NBA, and the Celtics aren’t afraid of anybody. Horford has been hearing people write him off because of his age since his first stint in Boston. Porzingis has overcome more severe injuries than this one. You may see potential “issues,” but they only see challenges. If the spacing isn’t as pristine without KP, that’s beautiful. It’ll challenge all the ballhandlers to make more difficult reads. It’ll challenge Xavier Tillman to knock down his 3s. I resent the notion that I’ve been “Mazzulla-pilled,” by the way — he’s a coach, not a cult leader, and he’s far from the only one in the organization who understood the importance of moving on last June. Brad Stevens said in the summer that he “put last season to bed” immediately after the parade. The next day, he was at a draft workout.

Celtics skeptic: How far can you take this they-only-see-challenges concept? If Tatum and Brown both suffer serious injuries in the season opener, the rest of the season would be pretty big challenge, right? Treating setbacks and shortcomings as opportunities for growth is not some revolutionary, unique-to-Boston concept, and it doesn’t inure you from the consequences of your so-called challenges. When Mazzulla says that the Celtics “shouldn’t miss a beat” without KP, I get that he’s trying to model the “next-man-up” mentality that every team in the league claims to have, but it’s annoying! It’s also sort of insulting to Porzingis. The next man up isn’t as good! I know I sound like I’m am doing a Jeff Van Gundy bit, but I’m serious: If you’re going to pretend every problem Boston might have is some kind of secret blessing on its path back to the top of the mountain, I don’t see the point in bringing them up.

Celtics believer: No, please, go ahead. Tell me about these problems. The Celtics don’t run from their problems. They love problems. They love solving problems. (Also, that’s former Celtics senior consultant Jeff Van Gundy.)

Celtics skeptic: Well, before the Celtics won it all, they kept getting in their own way. They barely escaped two tougher-than-they-should-have-been seven-game series in 2022, then went up 2-1 in the Finals before their offense fell apart. They fell down 3-0 against the No. 8 seed in the next year’s conference finals, and, even after huge roster upgrades — and a historically dominant regular season — many experts thought they’d self-destruct again last year. Half of this website’s panel of prognosticators picked the Mavs in the Finals, and more than half of ESPN’s did. Boston got the job done that time, but I’m not sure that it actually solved all its problems. After playing some of its best basketball of the season in the third quarter of Game 3, it allowed Dallas to go on a 22-2 run in the fourth quarter. What if Doncic hadn’t fouled out with more than four minutes left? What if the Celtics had played Denver instead? Had the Celtics lost, heading into this season it would be a totally different discussion — about how they need to have poise in the playoffs, put pressure on the rim, force more turnovers and push the pace.

Celtics believer: You’re almost there. Come on, say it with me: Last season doesn’t matter! Had they lost in the first round, I would say absolutely nothing different to you about the roster and the challenges that lie ahead. I agree with you that the Celtics need to be poised, pressure the rim, force more turnovers and play with pace. Playoffs, preseason, regular season, practice, whatever — the standard should be high. They are competing against themselves, and execution is everything. That said, there will be times when they play terribly. The goal is to not overreact to a 22-2 run, a terrible loss or a 40-point win. As Mazzulla says, winning is just as dangerous as losing.

Celtics skeptic: You are driving me insane. My point is that, while the numbers suggest that the 2023-24 Celtics were head and shoulders above the competition, I’m not convinced that they really were. They never had to go against a team like this year’s Sixers, who can throw Paul George, Kelly Oubre and Caleb Martin on their perimeter players. They never had to go against a team like this year’s Knicks, who can do the same with Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart. Execution isn’t everything — talent is obviously the most important variable — but it is indeed important, and it’s much harder to execute against opponents like that. The irony here, though, is that, despite my concerns, I don’t think any other contender has quite matched Boston’s combination of spacing and defensive versatility. I wouldn’t take the Celtics over the field, but if I had to pick one team to win the title, it’d be them. Technically, this might make me more optimistic about their chances than you are, since you seem to have stripped winning and losing of any meaning, defeating the purpose of this entire exercise.