A way-too-early look at the top five NBA MVP candidates

The NBA season is fast approaching. Teams are playing preseason games and the regular season will begin Oct. 22.

Every season, one or two younger talents take a developmental leap, positioning themselves among the best players in the world. Who among the younger stars will be that player this season?

Here’s our assessment of the top five MVP candidates, with odds for each to win the award from FanDuel as of Wednesday (Oct. 9):

Nikola Jokic | Denver Nuggets | +400 | Last season: Reigning MVP

Jokic, 29, has won three MVP awards in the past four seasons. He enters the season as our favorite to continue stacking his resume with the most prestigious individual award in professional basketball. 

The Nuggets rely on Jokic to quarterback their offense. Last season, he averaged the most passes made in the NBA with 74.9 per game (14.9 being potential assists). Factor in his 26.4 points and 12.4 rebounds per game and you can see why he consistently sits at or near the top in the MVP race. 

Of course, Jokic would likely welcome missing out on a fourth MVP award if it meant the Nuggets made it back to the NBA Finals. Jokic must continue to prove himself as the best player in the world for a consistently weakening Nuggets team to have a shot at another championship.

Luka Doncic | Dallas Mavericks | +380 | Last season: Finished third in MVP voting

Doncic, who will turn 26 on Feb. 28, enters the new season fresh off an NBA Finals humbling by the Boston Celtics. As such, there are high expectations for him to have a career year as he looks to will his team toward a championship.

Unlike Jokic, the Dallas star has never won an NBA MVP award. With an elite supporting cast that includes Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson, though, this season could provide him with his best chance yet.

Doncic must learn to trust his teammates if the Mavericks are to have a shot at winning a title. During the 2023-24 season, he averaged 91.8 touches per game, with an average possession time of 8.3 seconds. When the ball gets into his hands, it sticks — and that can lead to a disjointed offense when defenses hunker down, especially in the postseason. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | +500 | Finished second in MVP voting

Gilgeous-Alexander, 26, has slowly ascended toward the top of the NBA. Over the past two seasons, he has proved himself as the best point guard in the league, spearheading a young and exciting Thunder team. 

His probing of opponents often causes defensive collapses. Last season, Gilgeous-Alexander led the NBA in drives per game, averaging 23.3 per game. He passed out of those drives 71% of the time, allowing the Thunder to execute secondary offensive attacks while making use of Gilgeous-Alexander’s scoring gravity. 

Assuming coach Mark Daigneault’s team can make good on its promise and potential, Gilgeous-Alexander should have no problem finding himself in the MVP conversation again, especially if he can improve his pass-to-assist ratio on drive-and-kick actions. They are, after all, his bread and butter. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo | Milwaukee Bucks | +850 | Finished fourth in MVP voting

If Antetokounmpo, a 29-year-old two-time MVP, can make the most of his partnership with Damian Lillard and help lead coach Doc Rivers’ team to strong seeding in the Eastern Conference, he should have a claim to the MVP award. 

However, the Bucks are not a young team and have questions surrounding Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton. Considering Antetokounmpo is at his best when running the court in transition, it will be interesting to see how the Bucks continue to get the best out of their star. 

Last season, Antetokounmpo led the NBA in field-goal percentage on the break, converting his shots at a 68.3% clip on a league-leading 6.3 transition possessions per game. 

Given the elite talent he will be competing against, Antetokounmpo may find himself outside the top two in MVP voting.

Joel Embiid | Philadelphia 76ers | +750 | Last season: Finished outside top 10 in MVP voting

Embiid, 30, was among the favorites for the 2023-24 MVP award, but his inability to remain healthy cost him a chance to become a back-to-back MVP. The 76ers will have a significantly stronger roster this season and that should take pressure and workload off the star big man. 

If he can stay healthy and continue to dominate, Embiid will have a strong chance to win his second MVP award. The most logical way for him to find success and re-enter the MVP voting is by developing a two-man game with first-year Philadelpha star Paul George. 

Embiid finished second in post-ups last season (averaging 8.3 possessions per game) and shot 55.6% from the field. If he and George can develop elbow or mid-post actions between each other, their pairing will be tough to stop.