Earth’s ‘vital signs’ show planet at tipping point

Several of the Earth’s ‘vital signs’ have hit record extremes, showing that climate breakdown is imminent, a group of senior climate scientists says. 

Out of 35 identified planetary health markers, including air and ocean surface temperature and sea ice extent, 25 are now at their worst level ever recorded. 

With the threat of ecological overshoot looming, climate experts fear a possible societal collapse. 

‘Climate change could eventually contribute to societal collapse’

They warn that hundreds of millions or even billions of people will be displaced if business as usual continues, leading to greater geopolitical instability and conflicts. 

Climate change could cause many millions of additional deaths worldwide by 2050, they add, stressing that since last year, heatwaves have already killed more than a thousand people just in Asia.

“The future of humanity hangs in the balance,” experts stress, in a state of the climate report published yesterday in the journal BioScience. 

“Climate change could contribute to a collapse by increasing the likelihood of catastrophic risks such as international conflict or by causing multiple stresses, resulting in system-wide synchronous failures.”

Multiple climate change indicators have hit record-highs

In 2024, several indicators have hit record highs, including the number of human and animal livestock populations, per capita meat production and world GDP. 

Symptoms of an overuse of resources, numerous climate indicators were also higher than ever before, including the concentration of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere. 

Sea surface temperatures also reached an unprecedented peak as did ocean acidity, resulting in a lowered capacity for the number one carbon sink to sequester this planet-heating gas. 

Ocean heat also hit a record high, driving one of the worst global coral bleachings ever witnessed. This can lead to the death of coral reefs, with severe impacts for the 25 percent of marine species that depend on them.

Glaciers and forest cover hit record-lows

Meanwhile, some record-lows have also been recorded: the average glacier thickness is now at its lowest ever level, as are the Greenland’s and Antarctica’s ice masses, experts say. This melting continental ice contributes about half to the rise in sea levels. 

Global deforestation has also led to one of the highest tree cover loss levels, resulting in lowered carbon sequestration capacities by forests – the world’s second largest carbon sink behind oceans. 

Although deforestation in the Amazon has slowed down under the new Brazilian government, the ‘lungs of the Earth’ may still be nearing a tipping point, according to the study.

Feedback loops could trigger multiple tipping points

Like deforestation, permafrost thaw can drive several greenhouse gas emission snowballs, known as feedback loops, according to experts, who have identified 28 amplifying feedback loops. Itself caused by rising temperatures, permafrost melting releases more CO2 and methane, leading to further warming.

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According to the experts, these critical findings stem from a lack of sufficient measures to limit global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial levels, as agreed in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. 

Critically, among the report’s authors, only 6 per cent believe that we can reach 1.5°C. Meanwhile, 80 per cent believe we are on track to surpass 2.5°C of warming by the end of the century. 

‘Wrong direction’: Increasing fossil fuel consumption could result in catastrophe

“We are currently going in the wrong direction and our increasing fossil fuel consumption and rising GHG emissions are driving us toward a climate catastrophe,” scientists write. 

Blaming those financially benefiting from the current oil-based system, climate experts call for an urgent phase down of fossil fuels, adding that “unlimited growth is an illusion” in a world with finite resources. 

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The solution, they say, lies in transformative and immediate efforts to mitigate and adapt. Economic incentives, including an increased carbon price, should be favoured to curb emissions by the wealthy.

Pricing methane emissions – which traps 86 times more heat in the atmosphere than CO2 over 20 years –  is also presented as a useful tool to slow down global warming in the near-term. 

“Avoiding every tenth of a degree of warming is critically important”, conclude experts.