NFL betting guide: Dougherty’s Week 5 picks and predictions

Believe it or not, we’re already four weeks through the 2024 NFL season. We’re starting to get a sense of who these teams are and what they do best, so let’s take a look at the NFL Week 5 and give out some betting tips and predictions for each game.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

Thursday, Oct. 3, 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
Spread: Falcons -1.5
Total: 43.5

The Week 5 slate gets underway with a NFC South battle on “Thursday Night Football,” and this should be a fun one. The Buccaneers are coming off a dominant win against the Philadelphia Eagles to improve to 3-1, while the Falcons took down the New Orleans Saints in the final seconds to claw their way to 2-2.

The defense has kept Atlanta afloat so far, but it’ll be without leading tackler Troy Andersen in Week 5. Whereas Kirk Cousins has struggled, Baker Mayfield is thriving with 984 passing yards and eight touchdowns through four games.

Mismatch to exploit: Kyle Pitts vs. Buccaneers defense

Pitts hasn’t been very busy this season, but he’s averaging 56.3 receiving yards per game against the Bucs. Take a look at his receiving yards over. 

Prediction: Buccaneers 22, Falcons 20

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Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets

Sunday, Oct. 6, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Network
Spread: Vikings -2.5
Total: 40.5

The blokes in New York and Minnesota are heading to London for the second international game of the season. What a start to the season it’s been for the Vikings, which are 4-0 and lead the NFL in sacks. Sam Darnold is a legitimate MVP contender after throwing for 932 yards and 11 touchdowns through four starts.

As for the Jets, they took a step back in Week 4 with an ugly 10-9 loss against the Denver Broncos. Aaron Rodgers isn’t on the same page with Garrett Wilson just yet, but NY ranks second in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. 

Mismatch to exploit: Aaron Jones vs. Jets run defense

The Jets are shutting down opposing quarterbacks, but they let the San Francisco 49ers, Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos run all over them. Jones is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, so check out his rushing yards over.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Jets 17

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Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders

Sunday, Oct. 6, 1 p.m., FOX
Spread: Commanders -3
Total: 43.5

The Commanders have one of the best and most efficient offenses in the NFL. Yes, you read that right. Jayden Daniels has been spectacular with his 82.1 percent completion percentage, and Washington has scored 80 points over the last two weeks. 

The Browns are the complete opposite, as they rank 31st in total offense and 27th in scoring this year. Because the defense hasn’t been as dominant as last season, Cleveland has limped to a 1-3 start. 

Mismatch to exploit: Amari Cooper vs. Commanders secondary

Cooper went for 86 yards against the New York Giants and had a long touchdown called back against the Las Vegas Raiders. Deshaun Watson will feed him against the worst secondary in the league, so take a look at his receiving yards over or anytime touchdown.

Prediction: Browns 23, Commanders 20