NHL season 2024: Wild, Sabres and Canadiens among top breakout candidates this season

Every NHL season has its share of surprises. Inevitably, a team that everyone thinks is a playoff lock will be on the outside looking in, and a team everyone wrote off will come out of nowhere to steal a postseason spot.

We’re taking a look at some candidates for the latter category today, trying to find some squads that could break out after middling to poor seasons a year ago. One thing all four teams on this list have in common is a roster full of young talent that looks poised to take a big step forward.

In the modern NHL, with salary cap restrictions limiting what teams can do in free agency and on the trade market, having young and cost-controlled stars is a must. Each of these teams have that, and that gives them hope that their time to shine is on the horizon.

Let’s take a look at the four teams that could sneak up on the rest of the NHL in 2024-25.

In one of the biggest trades at the 2024 NHL Draft, Utah acquired defenseman Mikhail Sergachev from the Tampa Bay Lightning. He gives the franchise a bona fide stud on the blue line, and in a more under-the-radar move, Utah also landed John Marino from the New Jersey Devils. Put those two into the mix with Sean Durzi, and suddenly the defensive corps is worthy of some excitement.

Those defensemen should get some run support from one of the most promising forward groups in the NHL. They’re led by Clayton Keller, who is coming off a 76-point campaign in 2023-24. Around Keller, there is all kinds of potential. Logan Cooley, the No. 3 overall pick in 2022, notched 20 goals and 44 points as a rookie. Dylan Guenther, the No. 9 overall pick in 2021, just got paid after putting up 35 points in 45 games. Matias Maccelli, 24, has flashed some excellent playmaking ability.

In net, Connor Ingram had one of the more underrated seasons from any goalie last season. The traditional numbers didn’t jump off the page, but he did save 5.05 goals above average and boasted a .841 high-danger save percentage, per Natural Stat Trick. He gives Utah some stability between the pipes, and his defensive environment should be better this season.

On top of the new additions and development from its prospects, Utah will probably be better off now that the rumors of relocation are behind it. All the speculation last season had to weigh on the players, and now that weight is off their shoulders.

One of the biggest things holding the Wild back in recent years was a lack of true offensive game-changers outside of the great Kirill Kaprizov. There’s a chance, if a couple young players step up, that will change in 2024-25.

Fans not familiar with Matt Boldy will be soon enough. Through just 203 NHL games, Boldy has already amassed 75 goals and 96 points. In each of the last two years, Boldly has scored at a 30-goal pace, and he’s only 23 years old. He should give Minnesota another offensive superstar to pair with Kaprizov, and Marco Rossi might give them another.

Rossi totaled 40 points in his first full season, and the former No. 9 overall pick appeared to find his footing at the NHL level. Rossi played the second-most five-on-five minutes of any Wild forward, and the team controlled 52.9% of the expected goals in that time, per Natural Stat Trick.

The kicker for Minnesota will be the goaltending because the defense should be a strength again, and Brock Faber already looks like he’ll be in the Norris Trophy discussion for a very long time. Last year, Filip Gustavsson and Marc-Andre Fleury combined to allow 14.3 goals above average, and I can’t imagine they’ll be that bad for the second consecutive season.

The people of Buffalo have been starving for their first playoff appearance since 2011. If the Sabres are going to end their 13-year drought, they have some work to do, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility.

The first thing the Sabres need are bounce-back campaigns from Alex Tuch and Tage Thompson. After totaling 36 goals and 43 assists in 2022-23, Tuch only reached 22 goals and 37 assists last season. Thompson battled injuries and was still productive, but his 56 points in 71 games were a huge drop off from 94 points in 78 games the prior year. To some degree, those two saw natural regression last season, but they’re still capable of more than they showed.

Elsewhere on the roster, the young prospects need to turn potential into tangible production. JJ Peterka hit 28 goals and 50 points as a 22-year-old, so I expect even bigger things from him this season. Jack Quinn, the No. 8 overall pick in 2020, missed much of last year due to injuries, and he is a breakout candidate in his own right. Quinn scored 14 goals as a rookie in 2022-23. Add Zach Benson, 19, to this list and Buffalo might show some real growth up front.

Ukko-Pekka Luukonen proved last year that he is the answer in net for the Sabres, posting 10.1 goals saved above average despite not always getting the most help. In front of Luukonen is one of the most fun blue lines in the league. With the acquisition of Bowen Byram last year, the Sabres now have three top-four picks on defense.

The term “breakout” is doing some work here because I don’t think the Canadiens will be a real threat for a playoff spot. Having said that, they look poised to take a notable step forward and blow past their 76-point mark from 2023-24.

That leap will start with the two franchise cornerstones, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. That duo combined for 61 goals and 81 assists last season, and they’re only 24 and 23, respectively. The big X-factor will be how much progress former No. 1 overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky makes this season. It took a minute for Slakfkovsky to get adjusted to the NHL, but he came on strong last year and ended with 20 goals and 30 assists.

Another potential star is defenseman Lane Hutson, who played two games last season but is expected to get his first full dose of NHL hockey this year. An electrifying playmaker from the back end, Hutson put up 97 points in 77 career games at Boston University. If that production carries over to the Canadiens, Hutson will be a blast to watch.

It’s a shame that Patrik Laine suffered what appears to be a serious knee injury in a preseason game, but hopefully he can return to the lineup before the end of the season because he adds a little more firepower on the wing.