Which 2023-24 NBA lottery teams can make the playoffs this year?

In the Eastern Conference, the 2024-25 playoff picture is shaping up to look very similar to last season. The Celtics, Knicks, Bucks, Cavaliers, Magic, Pacers, 76ers and Heat all seem poised to return to the postseason. 

However, the Western Conference could be ripe for a shake-up. The Clippers lost All-Star Paul George in free agency and seemed set for a regression, while the Suns and Lakers made minimal roster changes and might be one significant superstar injury away from tumbling down the standings.

Amid this uncertainty, two teams in the Western Conference have the potential to make a leap from the lottery to the playoffs this year.

Sacramento Kings

The 2022-23 season was a breakout year for the Sacramento Kings. They finished third in the Western Conference with a 48-34 record, fueled by a historic offense that averaged 119.4 points per game. However, a dip in their three-point shooting led to a disappointing ninth-place finish last season, culminating in a play-in loss to the Pelicans.

This offseason, the Kings traded Harrison Barnes to the Spurs to create cap space for 35-year-old free agent DeMar DeRozan, who signed a three-year, $70 million contract. This high-risk, high-reward gamble could either propel the Kings back into the playoffs or prove to be a massive mistake.

DeRozan, a mid-range genius (49.4 percent from 10 to 16 feet in 2023-24) and arguably the most clutch player of the 2020s, could add the ancillary shot-making that elevates Sacramento’s offense to an elite level. 

With Domantas Sabonis commanding the paint, De’Aaron Fox or Malik Monk slashing to the rim and DeRozan operating from the elbows, the Kings offense will have top-tier scoring from everywhere on the court. Keon Ellis and Keegan Murray’s floor spacing further complicates matters for opposing defenses. The Kings could be virtually unstoppable next season.

That said, replacing Barnes with DeRozan could backfire. Barnes, an ironman with the second-longest active games played streak in the NBA (222), was the Kings’ second-best three-point shooter last season (38.7 percent) and a reliable defender. DeRozan, on the other hand, is a career 29.6 percent three-point shooter and ranked 13th in Defensive Rating on a leaky Bulls squad last season.

The Kings are set to be one of the most intriguing teams to watch next season. They have the potential to unleash an all-time great scoring attack once again, launching them back into the postseason. Still, the floor is equally low. DeRozan’s lack of three-point shooting could disrupt their offensive spacing, and his defensive limitations could make them vulnerable on the other end of the court.

Memphis Grizzlies

Much like the Kings, the Grizzlies dominated in 2022-23, anchored by their second-ranked defense and Ja Morant’s explosive scoring. However, Morant’s absence due to suspension and injury derailed them last season, resulting in a dismal 27-55 record.

As they enter 2024-25, Morant is healthy, alongside former Defensive Players of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. and Marcus Smart, sharpshooter Desmond Bane and promising rookie Zach Edey. Memphis will look to crash back into the playoffs.

While Bane’s long-range prowess (career 41.5 three-point percentage) and Smart’s playmaking offer a potent perimeter attack, and Jackson and Edey provide a formidable interior presence, Ja Morant’s ability to collapse defenses truly fuels the Grizzlies offense. 

With its superstar point guard back in action, Memphis should have no trouble generating easy scoring opportunities, both at the rim and beyond the arc. On defense, Memphis boasts three of the most physical defenders in the league, with Smart, Jackson and 7-foot-4 Edey. It could pound teams into oblivion, reclaiming its place as a top-five defense.

There are questions, though. The departure of Dillon Brooks leaves a void on the wing. Can Bane, at 6-foot-5, now starting at small forward alongside Morant and Smart, replicate Brooks’ defense against the West’s elite wings? Will Morant become a target on the less glamorous end? The trade of Steven Adams also raises concerns. While Jackson is a premier rim protector, he’s undersized against the NBA’s top centers. The Grizzlies are banking on rookie Edey to fill that gap, but can the hulking newcomer effectively challenge the likes of Nikola Jokic, Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Davis?

The Grizzlies could take things personally this year and clobber squads with a swarming defense and offense guided by Morant. However, their lack of perimeter size and overreliance on Morant’s scoring might be their downfall.