Round-by-round predictions for 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs

On Saturday, 12 drivers will begin their hunt for the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series championship. 

The Xfinity Series playoffs will be composed of three rounds and seven races, with the highest finishing driver of the Championship Four at Phoenix taking home the title. Here are our predictions for each round. 

Xfinity Series Standings entering Kansas

1. Justin Allgaier (+27); 2. Cole Custer (+21) ; 3. Austin Hill (+18); 4. Chandler Smith (+17); 5. Shane van Gisbergen (+10); 6. Jesse Love (+6); 7. Sam Mayer (+4); 8. Riley Herbst (+3); 9. Sheldon Creed (-3); 10. AJ Allmendinger (-4); 11. Sammy Smith (-9); 12. Parker Kligerman (-12).

Round of 12 (Kansas, Talladega, Charlotte Roval)

Kansas is the most straightforward race of the three that comprise the Round of 12, while both Talladega and the Charlotte Roval present an opportunity for chaos. This will be the round where the pretenders are separated from the true contenders, and those with a lack of playoff points are already behind the eight-ball. 

Eliminated: Sammy Smith, Parker Kligerman, Riley Herbst, Sam Mayer
Smith and Kligerman have seldom had the speed necessary to make a deep run this season, while Mayer’s inconsistency left him outside of the top-12 in the regular season standings. Herbst is the “surprise’ elimination of the four, but since its win at Indianapolis on July 20, the No. 98 team hasn’t been quite as quick. 

Shane van Gisbergen will likely be a popular elimination when fans fill out their brackets, but his saving grace is the Charlotte Roval on Oct. 12. A win is never guaranteed in NASCAR, but van Gisbergen has been the best Xfinity Series driver on road courses so far in 2024, and there’s no reason to think that’ll change in Charlotte.

Round of 8 (Las Vegas, Homestead, Martinsville)

This round will whittle the field down to the final four. Multiple top-five performances — or a win — will be needed in order to advance to the championship race, and experience will be a very valuable asset for the veterans still racing for a title. 

Eliminated: Shane van Gisbergen, Jesse Love, Austin Hill, Chandler Smith
Van Gisbergen is clearly the best road-course driver in the field, but a round consisting of three ovals — one of which he’s never been to before — will be what ultimately does in his title hopes. Smith and Love’s inexperience will prove costly, while Hill and the No. 21 team have lost any semblance of the winning speed they had earlier in the season. 

Championship Race: Phoenix (Nov. 9)

Championship Four: Sheldon Creed, Justin Allgaier, Cole Custer, A.J. Allmendinger
Allmendinger may seem like a surprising pick, but he’s been here before. The crafty veteran will find a way to race for the championship, as will Creed. Creed is still looking for his first career Xfinity Series win, but his 13 top-five finishes lead the series this year. If there’s any driver who knows how to consistently have a shot to win, it’s Creed. 

Custer and Allgaier almost seem like no-brainers — Custer is the regular-season champion and defending Xfinity Series champion, while Allgaier has never finished worse than seventh in points over a full Xfinity Series season. That mark includes six trips to the championship race since the format was introduced in 2016. 

Champion: Cole Custer
As fun as it would be to see Creed break through or Allgaier win his first championship, the No. 00 team is firing on all cylinders going into the postseason. With the weight of a company on his back, Custer will close Stewart-Haas Racing’s Xfinity Series history with his second consecutive championship before returning to the Cup Series in 2025.