More than 740 million young people could be short-sighted by 2050

The number of short-sighted children and adolescents globally will grow to more than 740 million by 2050, according to a comprehensive new analysis looking into the prevalence of the eye disorder.

The study authors said myopia, when people have difficulty seeing objects at a distance, has gradually increased since 1990 from roughly a quarter of children and adolescents to one-third, making its current global prevalence “substantial”.

Published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology, the research provided an analysis of 311 studies that involved more than 5.4 million participants from 50 countries.

While it was previously known that myopia has been increasing, the new study, led by researchers at Sun Yat-Sen University in Guangzhou, China, includes updated projections across six continents to better understand the extent of the problem.

Overall, the study predicted there will be a 9 per cent rise in the global prevalence of myopia between 2023 and 2050. The prevalence is expected to be higher among adolescents aged 13 to 19 compared to children aged 6 to 12, the authors said.

They predict that by 2050, more than half of adolescents and more than a quarter of children in these age groups will be myopic.

“This is a very worrying prediction, and it falls in line with previous data but gives us a more precise and up-to-date estimate,” said Imran Jawaid, a consultant paediatric ophthalmologist at Moorfields Eye Hospital Dubai who was not involved in the study.

Myopia now seen more as an eye disease

While myopia used to be thought of as a disorder rather than an eye disease, there is a known risk of complications later on in life, he added.

The concern about the figures for children is that “if you develop short-sightedness at a younger age, you’re going to have a longer period in which your eye is going to grow and you’re going to end up being more short-sighted,” he said, meaning younger children could be at the highest risk of developing complications.

While the prevalence was higher among teens, the study notably found the growth rate of myopia among children over the last three decades was nearly twice that of adolescents.

A report released last week from the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine called for myopia to be classified as a disease and require a medical diagnosis.

It recommended that the US government encourage young people to spend more time outdoors, which studies have shown can prevent myopia.

Omar Mahroo, a professor of retinal neuroscience at University College London, who was also not involved in the study, said that while spectacles can correct short-sightedness, “increased myopia does increase the risk of sight-threatening complications, which include retinal detachments and myopic macular degeneration”.

“These complications can lead to irreversible sight loss. Thus understanding the causes of myopia and how it might be prevented is of importance in public health terms”.

Regional disparities and risk factors

Globally, the new analysis found huge regional differences in myopia prevalence in the countries included in the study, with the highest in Japan and the lowest in Paraguay.

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While it is not known what causes short-sightedness, there are certain risk factors and the analysis found that people living in East Asia, in urban areas and those who were female were more likely to be myopic.

Less time spent outdoors and more “near work,” which requires focusing on objects close to your face such as a screen or reading, can also contribute.

While the authors did not provide any explanations for the increase in myopia, they did point out that COVID-19 lockdowns had raised concerns about a “potential negative impact” on eye health due to a decrease in time spent outdoors, though evidence of this impact was underreported.

Asia had the highest regional prevalence of myopia, the new study found, with it seven times higher than the prevalence in Africa. The regional prevalence in Asia could reach 69 per cent by 2050.

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“It appears that populations, specifically East and South Asians, who have undergone swift economic transitions, have also experienced the most accelerated myopic transitions,” the authors said.

They added that early formal education in certain East Asian countries could be a contributing factor.

What measures can be taken to prevent myopia?

Jawaid said that there are some simple ways to help prevent myopia, such as working at a distance of 30 cm from a book or a screen and spending time outdoors.

“We always encourage children to get at least an hour, maybe two hours a day of outdoor time in the pre-school age, because we know that’s linked with reduced levels or reduced incidence of myopia,” he said.

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The study authors say that young individuals should practise eye-protective measures. They recommend increasing physical activity and decreasing time watching TV, playing computer games, and being online.

They also called on authorities to reduce the burden of too much homework as well.