Five last-minute predictions for Michigan vs. USC on Saturday

The Michigan Wolverines and USC Trojans are set to renew what has been a spectacular (but abridged) rivalry on Saturday at the Big House in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

The Trojans have rolled to a 2-0 record on the season with a big win over LSU in their coffers. For its part, Michigan was decimated in its biggest game of the season against Texas and followed it up with an underwhelming 28-18 win over Arkansas State last weekend. 

Michigan has better talent than it has
shown and matches up well with the Trojans at most positions except
for the most important of all — quarterback.

Here are five last-minute predictions for Saturday’s big game, which will mark the debut of Michigan’s Alex Orji as starting quarterback, with Miller Moss taking snaps for the Trojans: 

5. Michigan will stay close to USC

The Wolverines fell behind Texas 24-3 at halftime, dooming any hopes of a comeback after intermission with untested starting QB Davis Warren at the helm of OC Kirk Campbell’s offense. 

The Wolverines figure to play things closer to the vest with Orji at quarterback, pinching the offensive line inward and using more tight ends to create a writhing mass of humanity at the line of scrimmage.

Expect lots of runs and bootleg action with Orji behind center and a ball-control offense that will keep the game tight before halftime while Moss and his talented stable of skill players are kept off the field.

4. USC’s offensive line will struggle at times

Coach Steve Sarkisian and the Texas Longhorns had the perfect game plan for the Wolverines after Michigan held Fresno State to just 10 points in Week 1. 

Texas did not throw at Week 1 hero Will Johnson, instead torching new 2024-2025 starting cornerback Jyaire Hill and other inexperienced Michigan DBs for big chunks of yardage. 

Michigan’s stout defensive line was nullified with quick passes that took advantage of Hill’s inexperience. 

Expect adjustments from Michigan DC Wink Martindale which will allow the Wolverines defensive line to stymie the Trojans offensive line, which was tossed around at times by LSU’s front in Week 1. 

3. Michigan’s running game will improve

Last Saturday, Michigan racked up 301 rushing yards against Arkansas State using Kalel Mullings as the hammer (ala Blake Corum from last year) and Donovan Edwards as the “lightning” complement player. 

This arrangement suits both players well and Orji should make it tough for USC to key in on either running back with his strength and rushing ability. 

Expect Michigan to return to smash-mouth football this week, with emerging center Greg Crippen a focal point in the offensive attack. 

2. USC’s passing offense will hit on numerous big plays

Michigan has a potentially good-to-very good defense but Martindale, for all his intelligence and creativity, seems like a fish out of water so far at the major college level so far. 

The Wolverines badly miss the steady play of safety Rod Moore, who quietly developed into one of the best ball-hawking defensive backs in college football last season.

Backfield mate Makari Paige picked up the slack last week but Michigan’s secondary still has several inconsistent players who could become fodder for USC’s receivers if Moss is given enough time in the pocket to throw the football down the field on Saturday. 

1. USC will win a close game

It’s tempting to take USC and the points (-4.5 on DraftKings) in this game but Michigan knows how important this contest is for a successful season and will play focused and tough. 

Michigan’s rushing offense and the presence of Orji will keep this game close. 

In the end, though, crucial turnovers and/or missed opportunities by Orji, coupled with too much balance and strong QB play on offense from the Trojans, will rule the day.

USC wins, 24-20, in a close one in Ann Arbor.