Premier League predictions, picking every game: Manchester City to deal a blow to Arsenal’s title hope

Sunday in the Premier League will bring a highly anticipated match as Manchester City hosts Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium. The two teams were separated by only two points en route to City winning the title last season, so it’s a match that despite being early in the season will have massive late season implications. Facing each other after playing to draws midweek in Champions League play won’t be ideal, but that’s the price of success in the Premier League.

Lineups could look a little different than usual for Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta with Martin Odegaard ruled out of the match and Kevin De Bruyne as a game-time decision. Odegaard picked up an ankle injury on international duty for Norway while De Bruyne was withdrawn from City’s midweek UCL draw against Inter with an injury. Guardiola hasn’t ruled De Bruyne out of the match against Arsenal yet, but when he has missed so much time in recent seasons, it’s hard to see the Belgian featuring fully if at all in the tie.

No team in the Premier League has created more xG than City at 9.28, while defensively, both of these teams rank within the top five in xG against in the league, suggesting that this could be more of a defensive chess match between two managers who know each other quite well. Recent matches also back that assertion as both meetings last season only produced one goal combined. 

The Premier League won’t be won or lost on Sunday, but in a game of psychological battles, City could deal a major blow to Arsenal’s hopes. Already the last remaining team with four wins from their first four matches, extending that to five would also open a five point lead ahead of Arsenal. A 38-game season is a long time, but when Arsenal has now been chasing City for years, this means more.

Arteta has preached mentality because he knows that his team can’t afford to slip up in matches, meanwhile, for Guardiola, they’re the champions until proven otherwise. It takes a lot of built up credit to get to where City are and despite the success of Arsenal’s project, they’ve failed to make it count yet which will lead to more disappointment at the Etihad. 

Premier League matchday 5 predictions

Saturday, Sep. 21
West Ham 1, Chelsea 1
Aston Villa 2, Wolves 1
Fulham 1, Newcastle 2
Southampton 0, Ipswich Town 1
Tottenham 3, Brentford 1
Leicester City 1, Everton 1
Liverpool 2, Bournemouth 2
Crystal Palace 0, Manchester United 2

Sunday, Sep. 22
Brighton 2, Nottingham Forest 0
Manchester City 1, Arsenal 0