UEFA Euro 2021 odds, picks, predictions: Proven soccer expert reveals best bets for Italy vs. Turkey

Italy hosts Turkey on Friday afternoon in a group-stage match at Stadio Olimpico in Rome to kick off the 2021 UEFA European Championship. Originally scheduled as UEFA Euro 2020, the quadrennial event was postponed for almost a year due to the pandemic. The Italians went unbeaten in qualifying for this event, while Turkey finished second in its group. Both teams are strong in defense, and Italy has a bevy of talented forwards, but Turkey has pulled off some impressive results. Italy has won its last eight and has not lost a match since September 2018, while Turkey has won five of its last seven.      

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists Italy as the -210 favorite (risk $210 to win $100) in its latest Turkey vs. Italy odds, and the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before locking in any Italy vs. Turkey picks, be sure to see the UEFA Euro 2021 predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s soccer insider Martin Green

After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper. Since then, his European soccer picks have been spot-on. Green has generated almost $19,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season.

Now, Green has taken an in-depth look at Turkey vs. Italy. You can head to SportsLine to see the picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for Italy vs. Turkey:  

  • Turkey vs. Italy spread: Italy -1.5 
  • Turkey vs. Italy over-under: 2.5 goals 
  • Turkey vs. Italy money line: Turkey +750, Italy -210, Draw +305
  • Turkey: GK Mert Gunok had 15 clean sheets in 27 matches overall with Istanbul Basaksehir this season.  
  • Italy: FW Ciro Immobile has 123 goals in 177 league matches in his five seasons with Lazio in Serie A.

Why you should back Italy

The Azzurri will be motivated to go after its first European Championship since 1968, and manager Roberto Mancini has the Italians dialed in since he took over in 2018. They have won more than two-thirds of their matches after losing twice in his first four months on the job. Italy has outscored opponents 79-14 in the 32 matches under Mancini, with 20 clean sheets. It has outscored opponents 25-0 during its eight-game win streak, and defenders Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini have built a great rapport as a pairing with Juventus for many years.        

The four-time World Cup champions also have elite goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma, who tied for Serie A lead with 14 clean sheets for AC Milan at age 22. The Italian attack also is tough to stop, with a midfield featuring Inter Milan star Nicolo Barella and Chelsea’s Jorginho, who each have three goals and two assists in nine international matches. The pace of Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne, each with four goals in a combined nine appearances, and Andrea Belotti (six goals) will cause problems for the Turkish defense.

Why you should back Turkey

The Crescent-Stars have been confident and disciplined since Senol Gunes returned to lead his country’s squad in 2019. He led the team to a third-place finish in the 2002 World Cup, and the Turks have lost just three of the 26 matches since he reclaimed the job. Turkey had eight clean sheets in 10 qualifying matches, conceding just three goals, behind a defense led by Merih Demiral, Caglar Soyuncu and Kaan Ayhan. The Turks took four points from world champion France in Euro 2020 qualifying, with a 2-0 victory in Istanbul and a 1-1 draw in Paris.

Turkey kicked off 2021 with a 4-2 victory against the Netherlands in 2022 World Cup qualifying and followed that up by beating a talented Norway squad 3-0. Striker Burak Yilmaz, who scored 16 goals for Ligue 1 champion Lille last season, had a hat trick against the Dutch, and playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu also scored. Turkey is the youngest squad in the 2020 Euros with an average age under 25, so it should be able to keep pace with the Italians. 

How to make Italy vs. Turkey picks

Now, Green has turned his attention to Turkey vs. Italy. We can tell you he’s leaning under on the goal total (2.5), and he’s also revealed three strong prop picks with plus-money payouts. He’s only sharing those picks on SportsLine.

So who wins Turkey vs. Italy in Friday’s UEFA Euro 2021 opener? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to see the best bets for Friday’s Italy vs. Turkey match, all from the European soccer expert who has generated nearly $19,000 for $100 bettors since the 2017-18 season.

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