2021 UEFA Champions League odds, picks: Proven soccer model reveals best bets for Real Madrid vs. Chelsea

Real Madrid hosts Chelsea on Tuesday in the first leg of an enticing semifinal matchup between former champions in the 2021 UEFA Champions League. Real Madrid has won the competition a record 13 times, while Chelsea hoisted its first and only trophy in 2012. Los Blancos are in a battle with Atletico Madrid and Barcelona at the top of the La Liga table and come in off a scoreless draw with Real Betis. Chelsea sits in fourth in the English Premier League standings after a 1-0 victory against West Ham on Saturday.

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET at Estadio Alfredo Di Stefano in Madrid. Real Madrid is a 0.5-goal and +135 money-line favorite in the latest Chelsea vs. Real Madrid odds at William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before you lock in your Real Madrid vs. Chelsea picks, be sure to see the UEFA Champions League predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proprietary European soccer model.

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Created by two Norwegians — professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim — the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Since coming to SportsLine in 2019, the algorithm is up over $8,200.

Now, the model has set its sights on Real Madrid vs. Chelsea. You can visit SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several odds and trends for Chelsea vs. Real Madrid:

  • Real Madrid vs. Chelsea spread: Madrid -0.5
  • Real Madrid vs. Chelsea over-under: 2.5 goals
  • Real Madrid vs. Chelsea money line: Chelsea +235, Madrid +135, Draw +205
  • RMA: Toni Kroos leads La Liga in passes into the final third (253) and is second in key passes (63)
  • CHE: Mason Mount ranks second in the Premier League in shot-creating actions (143)

Featured Game | Real Madrid vs. Chelsea

Why you should back Real Madrid

Los Blancos are in the semifinal for the first time since they won the title in 2018 and come in unbeaten in their last 17 matches. They beat elite sides like Liverpool and Barcelona during that stretch, and they certainly won’t be fazed on the big stage. Real Madrid has struggled to score goals, but it has the firepower and talented distributors to do so. Toni Kroos, Casemiro and Luka Modric form one of the best midfields in the world, and they have combined for 11 goals and 14 assists in league play. Los Blancos have 146 shots in the tournament, compared to 112 for the Blues. 

Karim Benzema (21 league goals) is the primary threat up front, but 11 players have multiple goals. Real Madrid has a plus-32 goal differential in league action, and the defense has been stellar, allowing just 24 in 33 matches. Captain Sergio Ramos could return to the back line from injury, but Raphael Varane and Eder Militao have been a strong pair in the middle. Los Blancos have not allowed a goal in their last four matches, and goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has 15 clean sheets in 33 La Liga games.             

Why you should back Chelsea

The Blues have been in top form since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager in late January and have not lost in their past 10 games on the road. They have 16 clean sheets in 20 games in all competitions since Tuchel arrived, and they have allowed just three goals in 10 matches in this year’s Champions League. Goalkeeper Edouard Mendy has 15 clean sheets in 33 league games and seven in the UCL, and Cesar Azpilicueta and Thiago Silva are elite defenders in front of him. Ben Chilwell (five assists in league play) plays a critical role at both ends.     

Real Madrid has four straight clean sheets but failed to score in three of them. Chelsea will try to hold possession and fend off counter-attacks, and it has plenty of scoring options. Tuchel is seeking the right mix, but Timo Werner (six goals, six assists in EPL play) is a major threat and Mason Mount (six goals, four assists) is always in the middle of the action. Jorginho and Tammy Abraham both have six goals, while Olivier Giroud and Christian Pulisic have four. 

How to make picks for Real Madrid vs. Chelsea

The model is leaning under on the goal total, and it also has locked in a strong money-line pick for Chelsea vs. Real Madrid. You can only get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Real Madrid vs. Chelsea? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Chelsea vs. Real Madrid money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that’s up over $8,200.

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