2021 UEFA Champions League odds, picks: Proven soccer model reveals best bets for Chelsea vs. Real Madrid

A spot in the final is on the line when Chelsea hosts Real Madrid on Wednesday in the second leg of their semifinal matchup in the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League. The teams played to a 1-1 draw in last week’s first leg, and both teams come in off 2-0 league victories on Saturday. Real Madrid has won the competition a record 13 times, while Chelsea hoisted its first and only trophy in 2012. Los Blancos are two points behind Atletico Madrid in La Liga table with four games remaining, while Chelsea is firmly in the fourth spot in the English Premier League.

Kickoff from Stamford Bridge in London is set for 3 p.m. ET on Paramount+. Chelsea is a 0.5-goal and +117 money-line favorite (risk $100 to win $117) in the latest Chelsea vs. Real Madrid odds at William Hill Sportsbook, and the over-under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before locking in any Real Madrid vs. Chelsea picks, be sure to see the UEFA Champions League predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proprietary European soccer model.

Created by two Norwegians — professional poker player and sports bettor Jonas Gjelstad, and economics and engineering expert Marius Norheim — the model analyzes worldwide betting data and exploits market inefficiencies, helping its followers cash in. Since coming to SportsLine last year, the algorithm is up more than $8,200.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chelsea vs. Real Madrid. You can visit SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several odds and trends for Real Madrid vs. Chelsea:

  • Real Madrid vs. Chelsea spread: Chelsea -0.5 (+120)
  • Real Madrid vs. Chelsea over-under: 2.5 goals
  • Real Madrid vs. Chelsea money line: Madrid +245, Chelsea +117, Draw +230
  • Real Madrid: Karim Benzema has 71 Champions League goals, tied for fourth all-time.
  • Chelsea: Seven of Kai Havertz’s eight goals have come at Stamford Bridge.

Featured Game | Chelsea vs. Real Madrid

Why you should back Chelsea

The Blues come in confident and fit, and they have been on a tear since Thomas Tuchel took over as manager in late January. They have 17 clean sheets in 22 games in all competitions since he arrived and have allowed four goals and lost just once in 11 matches in this year’s Champions League. Goalkeeper Edouard Mendy has kept 24 clean sheets in 39 appearances in all competitions, including 14 in his last 20. The Blues held Madrid to one shot on target in the first leg, and last week’s goal is the only one they have allowed in their last five matches.

Chelsea’s road goal gives it a slight advantage and could force Madrid to press, leaving it vulnerable to counter-attack. Los Blancos have never beaten Chelsea (0-2-2), and Tuchel has not lost in five Champions League matches against them as a manager (1-4-0). Tuchel has plenty of scoring options, with Timo Werner posting 11 goals and 11 assists in all competitions and Mason Mount playing a major role with eight goals and seven assists. Kai Havertz (eight goals) is becoming a Tuchel favorite, and Christian Pulisic (six) also has brought energy up top. 

Why you should back Real Madrid 

Madrid has won four of its past five knockout games against English clubs and comes in unbeaten in its past 19 matches. Los Blancos have made the semifinals in nine of the past 11 seasons, so the pressure of the moment certainly won’t faze them. They could receive a huge boost with the return of captain and top defender Sergio Ramos from injury, and they have kept clean sheets in five of their last six matches without him. Former Chelsea goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has 20 clean sheets in 45 matches and leads La Liga in save percentage at 82.2.  

The offense is led by one of the best midfields in the world, and it sets the table for elite striker Karim Benzema. The Frenchman has 28 goals in 41 matches overall this season and had the critical equalizer last week. Toni Kroos, Casemiro and Luka Modric facilitate the action, with Kroos leading the squad with 10 assists and the others combining for 11 goals and 10 assists. Vinicius Junior is a major threat and has six goals this season. The confident young Brazilian plays his best in the biggest matches and scored twice in the quarterfinals against Liverpool.

How to make Champions League picks for Real Madrid vs. Chelsea

The model is leaning under on the total and it has also locked in a strong money-line pick as well as the exact projected final score. You can only get those picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Real Madrid vs. Chelsea? And where does all the betting value lie? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Real Madrid vs. Chelsea money line has all the value, all from the proprietary European soccer model that’s up over $8,200.

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