NFL Week 2 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

There are a number of matchups to circle in Week 2 but only a few edges to attack in the betting world. Every week, I will break down my favorite spread, moneyline, and over/under bets while weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL, a web and app platform that simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day, and meaningful team trends. Let’s take a look at three Week 2 bets you should consider making.

All data presented is as of Tuesday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.

Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight endD/ST | Kicker

NFL Week 2 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week

Ravens -7 at Texans

My favorite Week 1 bet was Ravens -8 vs. the Browns, and they ended up earning a 38-6 home victory. Baltimore was the only team to outscore its Week 1 opponent by more than 14 points and ranked first in the entire NFL in average scoring margin at +13.7 last season. 

What stood out in that first game (and last year) was Baltimore’s ability to dominate the game on both sides of the ball. Lamar Jackson went 20-for-25 passing for 275 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions and also carried the ball seven times for 45 yards. Second-year wideout Marquise Brown caught five passes for 101 yards while veteran Willie Snead (four catches, 64 yards, touchdown) and tight end Mark Andrews (five receptions, 58 yards, two touchdowns) also played prominent roles in the passing attack. Meanwhile, rookie running back JK Dobbins scored two touchdowns on the ground, and even though Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and him combined for 21 carries and just 68 yards, this offense was in complete control. 

As seen when the Chiefs beat them 34-20 last week, the Texans simply don’t have the offensive firepower or defensive capability to match up with an elite offense. Whoever made this NFL schedule must not be a Texans fan because they’re going to be facing the two best offenses in the entire NFL to start the season! 

So far, 87 percent of total money wagered is backing the Ravens (per BetQL’s NFL consensus picks dashboard).

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NFL Week 2 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week

Patriots (+170) at Seahawks

Sure, Tom Brady is gone, but this Patriots offense under Cam Newton has the potential to be something special. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels installed a completely new playbook, and it’s clear that this team will rely on Newton, both in the air and on the ground. In New England’s Week 1 victory over the Dolphins, Newton went 15-for-19 for 155 yards through the air, but also carried the ball 15 times for 75 yards and two touchdowns. 

What stands out in this matchup is New England’s play-action prowess. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, the Patriots called a run or play-action pass 82.5 percent of the time in Week 1. Newton had a 112.5 passer rating on play-action passes, and even though the Seahawks beat the Falcons 38-25, Seattle allowed a 72.7-percent completion percentage vs. play action along with a 101.5 passer rating. Further, the Seahawks have struggled against the play action for quite some time and allowed the third-most passing yards against that play type last season.

While key members of the Patriots defense opted out of the season, the scheme reigned supreme in Week 1 and they consistently got stops when they needed to. Expect this group to be prepared and come out with a defined gameplan every week while Bill Belichick is still at the helm. Everyone can buy into the “let Russ cook” movement, but I’ll side with New England as an underdog on the road on Sunday Night Football. 

An overwhelming percentage of the total money is being wagered on one team’s moneyline in this matchup. Check out BetQL to see what team our model’s expert NFL pick is on. 

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NFL Week 2 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week

Buccaneers vs. Panthers: OVER 47.5

BetQL is listing the OVER as a 5-star bet and we project 55 points to be scored in this contest. 

Since Todd Bowles took over as defensive coordinator at the start of last season, Tampa Bay’s defense has sold out against the run with a ton of success. That continued in Week 1 when they allowed just 82 rushing yards on 34 Saints carries. On the other side of the ball, Tom Brady threw 36 passes and the Bucs ran the ball 26 times. While that was due in part to the game script and playing from behind, Tampa Bay has shown a clear preference for making things happen through the air under Bruce Arians. 

Now that Teddy Bridgewater is in Carolina, the Panthers should be more comfortable throwing the ball than they were towards the end of last year. He threw 34 passes in a 34-30 Week 1 loss to the Raiders, compared to 30 team rushes. It’s important to know that Christian McCaffrey had his two worst games of his 2019 season against Tampa Bay. In Week 2, he rushed 16 times for 37 yards and caught just two of six targets for 16 yards in a 20-14 loss. Then, in Week 6, he rushed 22 times for 31 yards and caught four of five targets for 26 more yards. While he did score two touchdowns in that second meeting, he was bottled up and was the main focus of Bowles’ defense. 

That same philosophy should be expected in this matchup, which is why it has shootout potential, especially with McCaffrey’s ability to make plays through the air out of the backfield and split out wide. The more passes, the more chunk plays and more scoring potential on both sides of the ball for both teams.

You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!

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