The recent Tyler Lockett injury status has been something to pay attention to in fantasy football. While he’s played in every game this season, he’s been nicked up here and there, making fantasy managers wonder if they should start him or not. While most people ask, “Is Tyler Lockett playing?” I find myself asking, “Which Tyler Lockett will we get this week?” Can Lockett be someone you trust during Thursday Night Football in Week 11?
Tyler Lockett has been inconsistent in 2020
We see it every year in fantasy. A player has a lot of fantasy points on the year but is still a question mark from game to game. One long run or a game with three TDs can really skew the data, especially early in the season, but through 10 weeks, the variance gets smaller.
Through nine games, Lockett is WR6 for the season, both in total PPR points (168.1) and PPR points per game (18.7). If you look only at his season-totals, he’s a stud WR1 without a doubt. But if you dig deeper and look at his weekly numbers, you can see that he’s been all over the place for fantasy this year.
His season-high was a whopping 53 points in Week 7, but his season-low was 5.9 points in Week 4. That kind of variation can kill a starting lineup and make it impossible to win a matchup. Fantasy football is a game of consistency at its core, and Lockett has been far from consistent this year.
Comparing the performances of Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf in 2020
Using Pro Football Network’s Consistency Score (CS), Lockett is WR10 so far this season with a 4.93. For comparison, Lockett’s teammate, DK Metcalf, is WR4 with a 5.92. This means that Metcalf has a higher average points per game and more consistently meets or beats that average. This makes him more valuable in fantasy because when he’s in your starting lineup, you pretty much know what you’re getting that week.
On the season, Metcalf’s PPR PPG is 19.2, only 0.5 better than Lockett. If you remove each player’s highest score, the average favors Metcalf by 2.2, meaning Lockett’s big game is impacting his season average a lot more than Metcalf’s is. If you also remove each player’s games at or below 8 PPR points, the average still favors Metcalf, but this time by 1.8. This means that the lower games are impacting Metcalf less as well.
All of this shows us a few things which we pretty much already know. First of all, Russell Wilson is playing well and supporting two top-six WRs in terms of PPR fantasy scoring. Second, DK Metcalf is the WR1 on his own team. So with that being said, if Tyler Lockett is playing tonight, should he be in your lineup?
Tyler Lockett Injury Status: Is Tyler Lockett playing tonight?
Tonight’s game is between two divisional rivals who are 21-21-1 overall in their history, so tonight’s game will most likely break that tie. Tonight’s game will also have an impact on the postseason, as both the Seahawks and Cardinals are tied at 6-3, along with the Rams for the division lead. A win this late in the season will likely put one team a full game ahead of their competition, which is huge for the playoffs.
Looking closer at the matchup using PFN’s Defense Points Against Consistency (D-PAC) shows us that it will likely be a high scoring affair. Arizona is 18th in D-PAC against WRs, meaning they’re pretty stout. However, Seattle has the highest D-PAC against WRs, meaning they give up the most points to opposing WRs.
On top of that, both teams are dealing with injuries to their running back groups as well. Arizona’s Kenyan Drake returned last week from an injury but didn’t quite look like his old self, and the Seahawks expect Carlos Hyde back but have had to rule out Chris Carson, so have their own question marks at the RB position. Therefore, look for both QBs, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray, to light it up through the air.
Earlier in the week, Tyler Lockett’s injury status was listed as questionable, but as of yesterday, he was upgraded to probable. With that change, expect him to suit up for the Seahawks tonight and add another terrific weapon for Wilson to deploy as usual. Lockett has been inconsistent as of late, so temper your expectations in fantasy, but he’s still worthy of a starting roster spot even with his variable output. Just hope that he gets multiple touchdowns like he did the first time these two teams met, and you’ll be set.
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Be sure to follow us on Twitter: @PFN365 to stay up to date with all things around the NFL and the 2020 fantasy football season. Also, continue to visit Pro Football Network for NFL news and in-depth analysis while also visiting our fantasy football section for more coverage and up-to-date rankings.
Andrew Hall is a writer for PFN covering the NFL and Fantasy Football. You can follow him on Twitter: @AndrewHallFF.
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