Warriors vs. Mavericks prediction, odds, line, spread: 2023 NBA picks, Feb. 4 best bets from proven model

The Western Conference takes center stage in the NBA with a spotlight matchup on Saturday. The Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks at Chase Center, with the Warriors bringing a 19-6 home record. Golden State is 26-26 overall, while Dallas is 28-25 overall and 3-1 in the last four games. Luka Doncic (heel), Maxi Kleber (hamstring), Christian Wood (thumb), and Davis Bertans (calf) are out for the Mavericks, with Spencer Dinwiddie (calf) listed as questionable. Draymond Green (calf), Klay Thompson (illness), and Patrick Baldwin Jr. (illness) are listed as questionable for the Warriors, with Stephen Curry (leg) listed as probable.

Tipoff is at 8:30 p.m. ET in San Francisco. Caesars Sportsbook lists Golden State as the 10-point home favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 226 in the latest Mavericks vs. Warriors odds. Before making any Warriors vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 16 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 49-23 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Mavs and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Mavs vs. Warriors:

• Mavericks vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -10
• Mavericks vs. Warriors over/under: 226 points
• Mavericks vs. Warriors money line: Warriors -480, Mavericks +360
• DAL: The Mavericks are 8-17 against the spread in road games
• GSW: The Warriors are 15-9-1 against the spread in home games
• Mavericks vs. Warriors picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Mavericks can cover

The Mavericks are in the top eight of the NBA in offensive efficiency this season, scoring 115.1 points per 100 possessions. Dallas averages the second-most free throw attempts (26.4 per game) in the league, and the Mavericks are in the top three in turnover rate (12.5%) and live-ball turnovers (6.2 per game). The Mavericks are above-average in 3-point shooting, making more than 36% of attempts, and Golden State is last in the league in free throw prevention (26.1 attempts allowed per game) on defense. 

On the opposite end, Dallas is allowing fewer 3-pointers (11.1 per game) than any NBA team this season, and the Mavericks are in the top 10 of the league in assist prevention. Golden State has a sky-high turnover rate of 16.0%, and the Warriors are last in the NBA in creating only 20.6 free throw attempts per game.

Why the Warriors can cover

Golden State is arguably the NBA’s best passing team. The Warriors lead the NBA with 29.4 assists per game, and Golden State also produces an assist on a league-leading 68.9% of field goals. Golden State is also the league’s most prolific team from 3-point range, making 16.4 triples per game, and the Warriors shoot 38.1% from beyond the arc. The Warriors are in the top 10 of the NBA in 2-point accuracy (55.8%) and fast break points (14.8 per game), with the Mavericks landing well below the league average in blocked shots, steals, and opponent field goal percentage on defense. 

Golden State is very strong at home, posting a +5.9 net rating in 25 games, and the Warriors are facing a Dallas team that is in the bottom three of the league in offensive rebound rate and assists. With the Warriors holding opponents to 47% shooting and creating 14.8 turnovers per game, Golden State is in a strong position.

How to make Mavericks vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 234 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Warriors vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits almost 70% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.