Heat vs. Hawks prediction, odds, line, spread: 2023 NBA picks, MLK Day best bets from proven model

The Miami Heat visit the Atlanta Hawks for a MLK Day matchup on Monday afternoon. The Heat are 24-20 overall and 10-11 on the road this season, including a win earlier this season in Atlanta. The Hawks are 21-22 overall and 11-9 at home, with Atlanta coming off a sweep of a road back-to-back on Friday and Saturday. Clint Capela (calf) is questionable for Atlanta, with Trae Young (shoulder) listed as probable. Kyle Lowry (knee), Nikola Jovic (back), Duncan Robinson (finger), and Omer Yurtseven (ankle) are out for Miami.

Tip-off is at 3:30 p.m. ET in Atlanta. Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as a 1-point road favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 223 in the latest Heat vs. Hawks odds. Before you make any Hawks vs. Heat picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 13 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 43-19 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,100. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Hawks vs. Heat and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Heat vs. Hawks:

  • Heat vs. Hawks spread: Heat -1
  • Heat vs. Hawks over/under: 223 points
  • Heat vs. Hawks money line: Heat -115, Hawks -105
  • MIA: The Heat are 9-10-1 against the spread in road games
  • ATL: The Hawks are 8-12 against the spread in home games
  • Heat vs. Hawks picks: See picks at SportsLine

Featured Game | Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat

Why the Heat can cover

Miami is playing well in recent days, winning 12 of the last 17 games and out-scoring opponents by 3.5 points per 100 possessions. The Heat are No. 2 in the NBA in defensive efficiency over that span, and Miami is fantastic in key areas on offense. That includes top-tier marks in free throw accuracy (82.8%) and turnovers (13.5 per game), setting the stage for the team’s defense to flummox opponents. 

Miami is giving up 110.9 points per 100 possessions this season, and the Heat lead the NBA in points allowed in the paint (44.1 per game). The Heat also rank in the top three of the league in free throw prevention (20.7 attempts per game), turnovers created (16.4 per game), and steals (8.4 per game). Miami is very solid on the defensive glass, securing 72.8% of missed shots from opponents and limiting the opposition to 12.7 second-chance points per game.

Why the Hawks can cover

Nate McMillan’s team is playing strong defense this season. The Hawks are creating 15.0 turnovers per game, and Atlanta ranks in the top 10 of the league in blocked shots (5.1 per game). Atlanta is also elite in 3-point defense, yielding only 34.2% shooting to opponents from beyond the arc. Miami is in the bottom five in field goal percentage (45.2%) and No. 25 in the league in free throw creation (22.0 per game). 

On offense, the Hawks are fantastic in ball security, committing a turnover on only 12.4% of possessions, and Atlanta wins on the margins with 82.0% shooting at the free throw line. The Hawks put pressure on the rim with 51.8 points per game in the paint, and Miami ranks in the bottom third of the NBA in 3-point percentage allowed (36.6) and 2-point percentage allowed (55.4%) this season.

How to make Hawks vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 222 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits in over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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