2021 NBA Playoffs: Bucks vs. Heat odds, line, picks, Game 4 predictions from model on 99-66 roll

The Milwaukee Bucks will look for the series sweep when they take on the host Miami Heat in Game 4 of their best-of-seven NBA Eastern Conference first-round series on Saturday. The Bucks (46-26), the third seed in the East, walloped Miami 113-84 on Thursday. After a tight Game 1, Milwaukee has won with ease the past two games and now are on the verge of clinching the series, although the Bucks will be without guard Donte DiVincenzo for the remainder of the 2021 NBA Playoffs after he suffered a serious tendon injury in Game 3. The Heat (40-32), the sixth seed, defeated Milwaukee in five games in last season’s Eastern Conference semifinals.

Tip-off from AmericanAirlines Arena in Miami is set for 1:30 p.m. ET. Miami leads the all-time series 79-51, including an 8-4 edge in playoff games. Milwaukee is a 4.5-point favorite in the latest Bucks vs. Heat odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 221.5. Before making any Heat vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $800 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the first full week of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 99-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen massive returns.  

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Heat in the NBA Playoffs 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Heat vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Heat spread: Bucks -4.5
  • Bucks vs. Heat over-under: 221.5 points
  • Bucks vs. Heat money line: Bucks -190, Heat +170
  • MIL: The Bucks are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven conference quarterfinal games
  • MIA: The Over is 5-1 in the last six games following a straight-up loss

Featured Game | Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Why the Bucks can cover

Two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo has been dominant in the series, grabbing 17 rebounds and scoring 17 points in Game 3, for his third consecutive double-double and third game in a row with 13 or more rebounds to begin the postseason. Antetokounmpo is averaging a NBA-playoff-high 16 rebounds per game. The eight-year veteran has been dominant in the series, and is averaging 24.7 points, 5.3 assists and 2.3 steals per game. He averaged 28.1 points, 11 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks per game during the regular season.

Also having a big series is forward Khris Middleton, who finished with 22 points in Game 3, including eight rebounds and five assists. He is averaging 22 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.7 assists in the series. Middleton has connected on 51 percent of his shots from the floor, including 43 percent from 3-point range. He has played well against Miami throughout his career and is averaging 24.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and six assists in eight career playoff games against the Heat.

Why the Heat can cover

Despite that, Milwaukee isn’t a lock to cover the Bucks vs. Heat spread. That’s because Miami has never lost a playoff series to Milwaukee, knocking off the Bucks in the 2013 Eastern Conference first round and the 2020 Eastern Conference semifinals. Point guard Goran Dragic has led the Heat in the series, averaging 17 points, 2.3 assists, 1.7 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. Dragic opened the series with a 25-point performance in the Game 1 overtime loss. In three regular-season meetings with Milwaukee this season, he averaged 15 points and two rebounds.

Also powering Miami is forward Jimmy Butler, who played collegiately in Milwaukee at Marquette. He’s had his moments against the Bucks in the past, averaging 15.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists in his career against Milwaukee. In Thursday’s loss, Butler scored 19 points, grabbed eight rebounds and dished out six assists in 38 minutes of action. For the series, he is averaging 15.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, six assists and 1.7 steals. Butler averaged 21.5 points, 7.1 assists, 6.9 rebounds and a league-high 2.1 steals in 52 regular-season games.

How to make Heat vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, projecting 222 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Bucks? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.

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