2021 NBA Finals: Suns vs. Bucks odds, line, picks, Game 4 predictions from model on 100-66 roll

The Milwaukee Bucks aim to defend their home floor at Fiserv Forum on Wednesday night. The Bucks, trailing 2-1 in the best-of-seven series, face the Phoenix Suns in Game 4 of the 2021 NBA Finals. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way for Milwaukee, with Chris Paul and Devin Booker keying the action for Phoenix. The home team has won and covered in the first three games of the series.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. William Hill Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a four-point favorite, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 220.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Suns odds. Before making any Suns vs. Bucks picks or NBA Finals 2021 predictions, you need to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned almost $9,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $600 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the second week of the 2021 NBA Finals on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in its Bucks vs. Suns picks and predictions for Game 4 of the NBA Finals 2021. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Suns vs. Bucks:

  • Suns vs. Bucks spread: Bucks -4
  • Suns vs. Bucks over-under: 220.5 points
  • Suns vs. Bucks money line: Bucks -185, Suns +165
  • PHX: The Suns are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight road games
  • MIL: The Bucks are 5-1 against the spread in the last six home games

Featured Game | Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns

Why the Suns can cover

Phoenix has been excellent offensively in the 2021 NBA Playoffs. The Suns maintain a 58.4 percent true shooting mark, converting 38 percent of their 3-point attempts and 86 percent of their free-throw chances. Phoenix is the better passing team, producing 24.0 assists per game, and the Suns usually take care of the ball well, picking up 2.06 assists for every turnover. The Suns are led by the backcourt of Booker and Paul, with both players capable of explosions at any moment and Paul is averaging 24.7 points and 8.7 assists per game in the postseason. 

Defensively, Phoenix struggled in Game 3, but the Suns have found overarching success during this run. The Suns are giving up fewer than 1.08 points per possession in the playoffs, and opponents are posting a meager effective field-goal mark of 50.4 percent. Phoenix could also benefit from Milwaukee’s perimeter shooting issues, with the Bucks converting only 32 percent of their 3-pointers during the playoffs. The Suns were a top-five team in the NBA in limiting 3-point shooting during the regular season, and they are highly effective at closing out to shooters.

Why the Bucks can cover

The Bucks have been absolutely dominant when playing in Milwaukee. Mike Budenholzer’s team is 16-1 in their last 17 games at Fiserv Forum, and they were flying around with energy on the way to their Game 3 win at home. From there, the Bucks scored 1.24 points per possession on Sunday, assisting on 65 percent of their field goals and committing only nine turnovers. Milwaukee has a turnover rate of only 11.0 percent in the series and, with yet another strong game on the offensive glass, the Bucks are grabbing 30.5 percent of their own missed shots during the extended playoff run. 

Milwaukee is also lights-out with the No. 1 defensive efficiency mark (106.4 points allowed per 100 possessions) in the NBA Playoffs 2021. The Bucks forced a turnover on 15.5 percent of defensive possessions in Game 3, and they also secured the rebound on more than 79 percent of Phoenix’s misses. Milwaukee is opportunistic, averaging 7.6 steals per game in the playoffs and posting a 13.3 percent turnover creation rate. Finally, they lead the entire postseason in free-throw rate allowed (0.198), winning the math battle at the charity stripe despite Phoenix’s elite-level shooting accuracy.

How to make Bucks vs. Suns picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with the team combining for 217 points in the simulations. The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time. You can only get this pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs Suns? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Suns vs Bucks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out. 

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