How to win over/under points bets in basketball

Sure, tuning into the NBA is a great way to spend a couple of hours but why just watch basketball when you could bet on it and, in the long term, make money from it?

Here we look at the steps you need to take to win over/under points bets.

Last year isn’t completely forgotten 

The first tip we look at is something a lot of people fail to do; how did teams perform last season? Yes, the rosters go through change during the off-season but it takes more than a few tweaks to transform most teams.

Teams that were scintillating on the offense probably still will be and the teams that had a leaky defence will probably still have significantly more than a trickle when under pressure.

For a really simple sense check as to how a team performed with respect of points head to a standings table. Personally, we think you’re hard pressed to find better than that offered by ESPN. The PPG column shows you how many points they average whilst the Opp PPG is how many they have away. Add them together and you have your starting point.

Of course, two teams will be involved in a match so you’ll need to look at both of the sides involved to see where an average points total washes out.

What about recent form?

Right, we’ve spoken about previous years performances and it is important but so are more recent displays. There are two ways to approach this; if it’s early in the season, you can simply revert to the league table and follow a similar process to that detailed above.

As time gets on though, the start of the season carries less relevance. Start to focus on the really recent form, for example, their last six matches. You can do this the old school way by looking at each of their last six games or use an online resource that gives you a form table.

What you’re hoping to find is combinations where both of the two steps we’ve covered are clearly leaning you to an over or under decision.

Head to head reviews

This is the most obvious piece of advice but so many punters fail to do their homework when it comes to the head to head review of the teams playing one another. It doesn’t matter how the teams perform in step one and step two if that goes out the window when they face each other.

Sometimes teams can have styles of play that clash and result in low scoring games when they’d normally be involved in high scoring ones, maybe teams employ special tactics that force a different outcome and sometimes you might just find teams have a bogey team.

Of course, what you’re looking for is a head to head record that doesn’t contradict the over/under prediction indicated in the earlier steps. If it throws huge doubt on the bet then leave it alone. If it support the bet then keep cracking on.

Check the roster information 

The final step of the process in establishing a good over/under points bet is to look at the team sheets as they come rolling in. Yes, that does mean you should leave it late to place your bet. It gives you the possible information to make an informed wager.

Think about it, you could tick every box until this point and then the star player of either team is missing and it changes everything. The main point scorer might be injured or the best defensive player might be rested.

So, make sure that even if you bet on the team with the best top 3-point shooter of all time, Steph Curry, that he is fit and in form. Read more here:

That doesn’t necessarily mean your bet should be thrown away but it will definitely change the perceived value of the odds on offer.

A word of caution

Finally, before we leave you to get researching, we have a word of caution. The steps we’ve outlined don’t guarantee you’ll win every bet; it’s a strategy that should position you to profit when followed on a consistent basis.

Here you have it, betting advice for all the basketball enthusiasts. Make sure to wage cautiously in the NBA games and good luck!

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