Windsor tips: Jamie Lynch’s guide to the Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle on Friday

Senior form analyst Jamie Lynch looks forward to the big betting contest on day one of the Berkshire Winter Million at Windsor on Friday, live on Sky Sports Racing.

The Fitzdares Sovereign Handicap Hurdle at 3.35pm is as strong as any Premier Handicap in Britain so far this season.

There are four horses higher rated in this than the top weight in the Greatwood, and there’s quantity to go with it, with only one of the 14 out of the weights. Let’s look at the field in depth.

1. Brentford Hope

Jockey: Paul O’Brien | Trainer: Harry Derham

Given an Arc entry once upon a time. Runner-up in the Grade Two Elite on his reappearance, and no doubt up to that level, but big-field handicaps are his bag, highlighted by his sign-off to last season, a superb second (of 24), likewise under top weight, to Daddy Long Legs at the Punchestown Festival.

Has presumably been set aside for this valuable prize, at a track that should suit him very well indeed, given his strong-travelling style.

2. Hansard

Niall Houlihan | Gary & Josh Moore

Still a sense of unfinished business about him, in part as he’s had just eight races in three seasons over hurdles, back from a full year out when a promising fourth at Kempton over Christmas, going off at 11/1 but trading in-running at 2/1, telling how he travelled before the absence caught up.

Beat Brentford Hope among others at Newbury last season, in a similar set-up to here, and the only previous times he’s been in a double-figure field resulted in two wins and a fourth in a Grade One.

3. Kabral Du Mathan

Harry Cobden | Paul Nicholls

This fast-improving five-year-old won his first three races before being beaten only on the nod by Fiercely Proud in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot, when the pair pulled 17l clear. This left the handicapper little option but to hike him up by 8lb, though there were more forces pulling at the race than simply springs on the first two.

It also preys on the mind just how hard a race he had at Ascot less than four weeks ago, potentially impactful on one so young, but that’s hypothetical, and his pillars of positivity are all evidential.

4. Knickerbockerglory

Harry Skelton | Dan Skelton

The fresh prince, who won first time out for the third straight season, beating Nemean Lion at Sandown, in receipt of 18lb and an easy lead on heavy ground, and the consequence is a career-high mark of 139, when he subsequently struggled from mid-130s ratings in his last few campaigns. The heuristic model of using past behaviours to predict the future spells danger for Knickerbockerglory and an impending lull.

5. Beat The Bat

Bryan Carver | Harry Fry

Easy to say he’s ahead of his mark, based on his second to Dysart Enos (giving her the mares’ allowance) at the end of his last campaign in tandem with his handicap debut at the start of this one, runner-up in a race at Haydock that was high on quality and quantity. The stable won the only previous running of the Sovereign which went ahead, with Metier, and Beat The Bat probably has his peak ahead of him after just seven races.

6. Cracking Rhapsody

Craig Nichol | Ewan Whillans

Ewan Whillans’ charge has a happy habit of raising his game with every race, as told by his surface stats of 5/12, though the only time he set foot outside of Scotland or the north was a rather chastening experience at Cheltenham in this season’s Greatwood (finished 10th at 33/1). He has since rebounded high at his beloved Kelso but he’s back swimming in a very different pool again here, and higher than ever in the handicap.

7. Givemefive

Michael O’Sullivan | Harry Derham

Givemefive was target trained to win a high-value four-year-old event at Cheltenham in October, before his limitations were exposed in a Grade Three at Fairyhouse the following month, in the jetwash of the exciting Anzadam.

This will be his first handicap over hurdles, and there’s just a question as to whether he’s quite worth 132, still resting on his Adonis second for that. I make him the stable’s second or third string behind Brentford Hope.

8. Go Dante

James Bowen | Olly Murphy

Go Dante was in the form of his life last term and duly won the Imperial Cup, and he’s only 1lb higher now. However, this is by virtue of some slipped standards so far this season, having been disconcertingly pulled up in the Ladbrokes Hurdle when tried without his usual cheekpieces (back on here). It may be a case of Father Time meeting Mother Nature, at the age of nine.

9. Hardy Du Seuil

William Featherstone (7) | Jamie Snowden

Pays his way, but one win in the last three years tells a tale, and the fact remains that he’s 0/8 from marks in the 130s, hurdles and fences, often in lesser handicaps than this. Reappearance second at Carlisle shows that all of his ability and appetite is intact, but he’s biting off more than he can chew in this company.

10. Court In The Act

Harry Reed | Harry Derham

Harry Derham’s charge has a few flaws and foibles but can be destructive when let loose on the lead, as was the case on his comeback at Market Rasen where never gave his odds-on backers a moment’s worry, despite his trademark stargazing. The problem is that this competition is much tougher, including for the lead (with Knickerbockerglory in the line-up), and he threw in the towel in a similarly hot handicap (Novices’ Final at Sandown) last spring.

11. Wreckless Eric

Kielan Woods | Jonjo & A J O’Neill

Wreckless Eric is a rapid riser who has beaten 26 out of 27 rivals in Cheltenham handicaps on his last two starts. Only the enterprisingly-ridden Mirabad did for him in a race which didn’t get to the bottom of Wreckless Eric, who was dropped out again. This will test the theory of the better the race the better he’ll be, but he’s definitely in that mould. There’s no saying how high he might climb, given he is only a five-year-old and is just six races in. A good gallop would help to unlock his latent talent.

12. Navajo Indy

Gavin Sheehan | Tom Symonds

On a roll, and his confidence is high, but so too is his mark after a successful handicap debut in the Gerry Feilden at Newbury, raised 8lb, when the race was lighter than it looked (few got into it).

It’s not just the recalibrated rating, as the track and tempo will be different here, but what may matter most of all is that no horse in the field is coming in hotter than him.

13. Secret Squirrel

Nico de Boinville | Hughie Morrison

This horse was arguably the moral winner in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Ascot as he kept going far better and far longer than the others who overdid things up front and was booked for third when departing at the last. He must recover from a heavy fall and a hard race, which will be easier said than done.

All the same, Ascot fuelled the feeling that there’s still that bigger performance in him which he’s long since threatened.

14. Tour Ovalie

Isabel Williams (3) | Evan Williams

Tour Ovalie goes from strength to strength and brought up the hat-trick at Newbury, where she did very well to catch Break My Soul when nothing else got near the short-priced favourite. However, she has a mountain to climb from out of the handicap, carrying 6lb more still than her reassessed mark.

Jamie Lynch’s verdict

This is a race replete with improvers, but finding one with more still up their sleeve is the challenge, and the best fit in that regard may be five-year-old Wreckless Eric, who’d have won his second straight Cheltenham handicap but for an inspired ride on Mirabad. His late-coming style also plugs in well with how the race maps out.

Watch every race on day one of the Berkshire Winter Million at Windsor live on Sky Sports Racing (Sky 415) on Friday January 17.