U.S. Intelligence Document on Russian Plan for Possible Ukraine Invasion

Potential for 175,000 Russian Forces Near Ukraine: Evidence of Recent Artillery, Equipment, Personnel Movements and Planning

03 December 2021

EST

Yelnya 543646N 0331019E

Empty Deployment Area

First BTG Newly Deployed Boyevo 512914N 0391119E

2

Second BTG Newly Deployed Boyevo 512914N 0391119E

3

RUSSIA

N

LAT.

Western Military District

N

N

Moscow

Yelnya

ir mu ME

BELARUS

26 NOV 2021

16 JUN 2021

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26 NOV 2021

© 2021 DigitalGlobe

Central Military District

© 2021 DigitalGlobe

Boyevo

Yelnya Five BTGs Newly Deployed 543646N 0331019E

1

Kyiv

Newly Arrived Tanks and Artillery Novoozernoye 452410N 0330852E

N

Kharkiv

UKRAINE

Dnieper

Luhansk

Donetsk

Zaporizhzhia

MOL

Mariupol

Persianovka

Odesa

Kherson

Sea of Ακου

Southern Military District

9 NOV 2021

Novoozernoye Crimea

16 NOV 2021

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4

© 2021 DigitalGlobe

Black Sea

50 BTGs currently (+/- 70,000 personnel) Up to 100 BTGs expected (+/- 175,000 personnel) Up to 50 Regiments of Reservists Expected (100,000 personnel) Battalion Tactical Group (BTG)

200

400 Miles

GEO

200

400 Kilometers

Recently arrived equipment

*Ukraine’s Avtonomna Respublika Krym (Autonomous Republic of Crimea) is occupied by Russia. Projection: Lambert. Conformal Conic. Boundary representation is not necessarily authoritative

Russian plans involve extensive movement of BTGs to/from the border to obfuscate intentions and to create uncertainty. Equipment may be left behind at different training ranges to enable a rapid, final buildup.

Location of the 50+/- Russian BTGs along the border and in Crimea

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