Ullmark’s Preseason Performance Sets Senators Up for Success – The Hockey Writers Ottawa Senators Latest News, Analysis & More

Thursday’s game against the Buffalo Sabres was not a great showing by the Ottawa Senators. After going up 1-0 on a goal by Noah Gregor late in the first period, the Sabres came back with a vengeance, scoring three minutes later while peppering Ottawa with shots. By the time the first period was over, the shots were 25-5 in favour of Buffalo. After the game, head coach Travis Green was less than impressed, stating plainly, “I don’t think there’s a lot of guys that helped themselves tonight.” One day later, the team cut 20 players from camp.

However, one player helped himself – newcomer Linus Ullmark, who finally made his debut with the Senators after joining the team in June. Before switching with Dustin Tokarski halfway through the second period, the Swede turned away 28 of 29 shots for a .947 save percentage (SV%) and a 1.18 goals saved above expected. It was exactly what the Senators hoped for when they acquired the 2023 Vezina winner – a reliable presence in the net, even when the rest of the team is struggling.

However, this is the preseason, and the Sabres didn’t dress a single NHL veteran for the game after receiving a special exemption from the NHL, which usually requires teams to dress eight. The only way to figure out whether Ullmark is truly the answer for the Senators is to compare the last few expected ‘answers-in-goal’ and how they performed in the preseason and whether those results foretold their regular season performance.

Joonas Korpisalo Struggled in Single Appearance

Last season, the Senators signed Joonas Korpisalo after a strong, albeit brief, stint with the Los Angeles Kings. The 29-year-old had struggled with consistency during his seven seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets, but in 2022-23, everything started to come together. In 28 games, he had an impressive .913 SV%, and his 10.18 goals saved above expected (GSAA) was the 16th best in the NHL. But with the Blue Jackets retooling, he was shipped off to the Kings in a blockbuster trade to help them contend for a playoff spot. In Los Angeles, he was even better, boosting his SV% to .921, and by the end of the season, he had a 13.54 GSAA in five-on-five situations, putting him ahead of Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jeremy Swayman.

That prompted the Senators to drop big money on the free agent in hopes he would solve their goaltending issues, but in his first preseason appearance, Korpisalo allowed three goals on 17 shots, giving him a disappointing .810 SV% and a -1.92 GSAA. It wasn’t the worst performance; Jonathan Quick, Adin Hill, and Cam Talbot all posted worse numbers in their preseason appearances. But while the three previously mentioned goaltenders went on to finish in the top 31 in SV%, Korpisalo never fully recovered. After 55 appearances with the Senators, he had a dismal .890 SV% and a -20.79 GSAA. No goalie played more games than him and finished with worse numbers, leading to his departure during the offseason.

Cam Talbot Looked Even Worse in Senators Debut

Speaking of Talbot, before he went on to thrive with the Kings in 2023-24, he was expected to help provide some much-needed consistency in net for the Senators. Ottawa was so desperate to find an upgrade in net they shipped off promising netminder Filip Gustavsson to the Minnesota Wild for the reliable veteran. On paper, the move made complete sense – Talbot had never posted an SV% below .908 aside from 2018-19, and even then, he rebounded in 2019-20 with a .919 SV% with the Calgary Flames. Meanwhile, after his excellent debut, Gustavsson struggled to replicate his early performance, and with Mads Sogaard, Kevin Mandolese, and Leevi Merilainen looking promising, he looked like the odd one out.

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Unfortunately, Talbot’s rare inconsistencies would rear their ugly head in Ottawa, and it started right out of the gate. In his first preseason game with the Senators, he posted a .842 SV% after allowing three goals on 19 shots and had a -1.23 GSAA. He regained some composure during the regular season but still finished with a .898 SV% and struggled with injuries that limited him to just 32 starts. However, the worst part was Gustavsson’s ascension in Minnesota. The 24-year-old became a bona fide NHL starter, posting a .931 SV%, 22 wins in 37 appearances, and an incredible 31.32 GSAA, which was only beaten by Ullmark and Ilya Sorokin.

Matt Murray Started Strong, Then Collapsed

The Senators’ first attempt to solidify their crease came with the acquisition of Matt Murray from the Pittsburgh Penguins. In many ways, it was similar to the Ullmark trade; Murray was a two-time Stanley Cup champion but was coming off of a down year and had lost the battle for the starting position in Pittsburgh. So, at the 2020 NHL Draft, the Senators sent their second-round pick (51st overall) and Jonathan Gruden for the highly-coveted goalie, then immediately signed him to a four-year extension worth $25 million. There was no doubt in anyone’s mind that this was going to work out.

With the 2020-21 season cut to just 56 games and set to start in January, there was no time for a preseason, so Murray made his Senators debut against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Jan. 15, 2021. Ottawa won the game, starting the season on the right foot, but Murray’s performance left something to be desired.

He turned away 20 of 23 shots, giving him an underwhelming .870 SV%. He was much better the following game, posting a .925 SV% despite recording a loss. That’s how much of the rest of the season went; in seven of his 15 games where he posted an SV% over .900, the Senators lost. Then, in March, he went down with an injury, keeping him out for nearly a month and limiting him to just 27 appearances. The hope was that the following season would be better.

Initially, it looked like Murray had improved, turning away 22 of 23 shots against the Montreal Canadiens and finishing his first preseason game with a .957 SV%. The next game against the Maple Leafs went even better; despite having 2.27 expected goals against, he only allowed one goal on 17 shots and recorded a .947 SV%. But then it all fell apart in his third appearance. In just over 24 minutes, he faced 12 shots, allowed two goals despite having an expected goals-against of 1.33, and finished with a paltry .833 SV%. It never got much better for him and the Senators. Although he finished the season with a .906 SV% – the best of the three goalies – he had a -0.48 GSAA and was unable to push the Senators above mediocrity.

Promising Starts Lead to Positive Seasons

While it’s unlikely Ullmark continues to play at nearly a .950 SV% pace – doing so would surely win him another Vezina Trophy – many goalies use preseason success to launch successful seasons. Since 2021-22, some of the best preseason performers have been Juuse Saros, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jordan Binnington, and Vasilevskiy, all of whom remained strong goalies throughout the regular season. Their success relies less on their teammates, which can fluctuate in the preseason, but on the quality of shots they face. Thus, a good goalie will generally stop more shots than a bad one.

So, looking at the Senatorsè three former starting goalies, their early struggles set them up for failure. Murray had the most promising stint, playing parts of two seasons and finished above a .900 SV% over a full season, but it was far from good enough. Of course, many other factors contributed to the Senators’ poor finishes. Special teams, defensive depth, inconsistency, and lack of depth scoring all played a part in stretching the Senators’ playoff drought to seven seasons. But when a team can’t rely on a goalie to make a clutch save when everything else falters, it’s tough to win games. That won’t be the case this season with Ullmark between the pipes.