United Kingdom

UK election polls: Red Wall seats Labour could regain thanks to Tory failures

The Tories lost the Wakefield by-election which returned the city to its red status, a major hammer blow for ailing Prime Minister Boris Johnson as he fails to repair his reputation following partygate. But the Conservatives certainly have their work cut out for them according to a recent poll that puts the ruling party far behind Sir Keir Starmer’s resurgent Labour.

Which red seats could Labour take back?

Labour number-crunchers said the aggregate vote share from the May local elections showed that it would win red wall seats such as Workington, Grimsby and West Bromwich if votes were translated into a general election.

The next scheduled general election is in 2024, and if the Tories don’t take drastic action to repair their reputation, current polls predict the red wall constituencies will revert their allegiance back to Labour.

A poll conducted in red wall seats between June 12 and 13 found an overwhelming swing back to Labour, with 46 percent saying they would vote for Sir Keir’s party.

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Labour led with ten percent over the Tories, who 36 percent of respondents said they would vote for.

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a General Election are included, the Labour Party leads by nine percent.

After weighting by likelihood to vote, 11 percent of the sample said they do not yet know how they would vote.

This includes 12 percent of those who voted Conservative in December 2019 and just two percent of those who voted Labour.

According to the poll, 37 percent of respondents said Mr Johnson would make a better prime minister for the UK at the moment, and an equal percentage said Sir Keir would be the best choice, whereas 25 percent said they didn’t know.

On the cost of living crisis that is wreaking havoc on household finances, 66 percent of red wall respondents said the Government is not taking the right measures to address this crisis.

Similarly, 60 percent said they do not feel like the Government has been making a clear effort to ‘level up’ the area in which they live – one of the key promises of Mr Johnson’s 2019 manifesto.

What’s more, 50 percent said they did not trust the Tories to deliver at all on their levelling up promise.

According to a poll completed by Opinium on June 25, Labour is still ahead of the Tories nationwide with 37 percent, a gain of one percentage point, with the Conservative’s sitting behind them on 34 percent.

Bookies have now slashed the odds on Mr Johnson leaving his role before the end of the year, as mutinous Tory MPs are reportedly looking for ways to oust him.

Betfair shortened the odds to 15/8 from 5/2 and put Jeremy Hunt the 6/1 favourite to be the next prime minister.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: “Losing their Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton seats in Thursday’s by-election has delivered another crushing blow to Boris Johnson, whose odds to leave his role as Prime Minister have shortened to 15/8 from 5/2.

“Jeremy Hunt is the 11/2 favourite to be the next Tory leader, while the Conservatives are 3/1 to win an overall majority at the next General Election.”


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