Intelligence expert’s warning over West’s shadow war with Russia

The Russian spy ship tracked in British waters is just a small piece in a much larger shadow war that the West is losing, according to a decorated counter-intelligence specialist.   

Bryan Stern, founder and head of the Grey Bull Rescue Foundation, told Metro that Vladimir Putin has an advantage in the ‘grey zone’ as his spooks operate outside legal and managerial constraints.  

Stern, a former US naval counter-intelligence officer, believes that ‘we would lose D-Day today’ and warned that ‘the bad guys have buildings of people who wake up every single day working out how to hurt us.’   

He spoke after the UK’s Defence Secretary warned Putin that ‘we know what you are doing’ after the ship was first caught loitering over critical undersea infrastructure in UK waters before returning and being tracked in the Channel by Royal Navy warships. 

Stern told Metro that Western governments are ‘paralysed’ in the cloak-and-dagger war because they are too risk adverse.

‘Spy ships are just the nature of intelligence operations which exist across air, sea, land and space, so there’s no big news about one being operated by Russia being seen near the UK coast,’ he said.

‘The UK and US play these “spy games” too.

‘The difference is that the Russians excel at using these unconventional tactics, whether it be non-attributable shipping or motorcycle gangs, while the West has always struggled because our laws and values sometimes conflict with the darker sides of espionage.

‘For example, the Russians used a bio-toxin in Salisbury, England. We would never use a bio-toxin in St Petersburg, Russia.’ 

The Yantar spy ship was first caught in November when it was monitored by several Royal Navy units including a submarine which surfaced close by to show that it had been secretly tracking the vessel. 

The ship then left the UK for the Mediterranean before returning this week and sailing through the Channel, where it was shadowed by HMS Somerset and HM Tyne in what the Navy considers routine but vital business.

John Healey told Putin that ‘we know what you are doing and we will not shy away from robust action to protect Britain.’  

The incident also follows a Russian navy warship, the Admiral Golovko, being escorted through the Channel by HMS Iron Duke in November and several RAF quick reaction alerts to intercept Moscow’s long-range jets over the past 12 months.  

‘As a 27-year Intelligence Community veteran who has busted Americans from Russian jails it’s pretty funny to hear the “jeepers creepers” when a Russian or Chinese spy is outed or a spy ship is spotted,’ Stern said.  

‘What is more of an issue is that the West has always struggled with counter-intelligence and the ability to act with freedom of movement.

‘The Russians have traditionally had a much more sophisticated and effective counter-intelligence capability than we do and we have a much harder time spying on them because their defence is stronger and their offence is robust.  

‘Our offense is robust but our defence is very poor, so it allows them to do things which lead people to say “look what they got away with” — but if you see one Russian spy ship there’s conceivably actually hundreds of them that we just don’t see. 

‘We do the same, but we can’t get close to them while they can get close to us. If you’re a UK fishing ship who is also doing signals intelligence for GCHQ or MI5 or MI6 and you’re in the Caspian and you go near Russian waters, you’ll be molested, disrupted and maybe even sunk.’ 

The grey zone includes clandestine operations such as cutting underwater cables, assassinations on foreign soil and cyber-attacks.

Stern views the West as lagging behind in a realm where gaining the upper hand is key to preventing all-out war.

‘It’s like a boxing ring where only one side realises it’s in a boxing ring and is increasing its capability every single day in its country’s interests, which is how it should be,’ he said.   

‘At the same time, they are not God-like. In fact, we have better toys, people and training and financial resources so it’s not a capability issue but there’s a lack of appreciation of the problem in the West. The Russian, Chinese and Iranian capabilities are through the roof while we’re saying, “can you believe it, Iran is about to be nuclear-capable!”  

‘The bad guys have buildings of people who wake up every single day working out how to hurt us, and they’re excited and they’re resourced and they’re smart and most importantly focused.’ 

MI5 director-general Ken McCallum has warned that ‘Putin’s henchmen’ are seeking to ‘generate mayhem’ on British and European streets.   

Incidents which have led to speculation about a Russian link include an incendiary device which caught fire in a package at a DHL warehouse near Birmingham.   

Counter-terrorism officers are reportedly investigating whether Russian operatives are behind the incident on July 22 last year, which involved the blaze taking place after the parcel was flown into the country. 

Washington and London’s freedom of manouveoure to hit back at Russia, China and Iran in relation to such murky incidents is a moot point.

‘Keeping wars in the shadows is precisely what won the Cold War and brought the Berlin wall down and led to the Soviets retreating from Afghanistan and so many other situations that were better for the world,’ Stern said.  

‘Tens of thousands of lives can be spared if, on the darker side, US intel hurts Russia or if the Russian intelligence services screw over us. Quietly.

‘Conversely, if it goes kinetic, like in Afghanistan, Ukraine or Gaza, you and the world have really big problems. 

‘At present, there’s a culture of risk adversity in all the intelligence services in the West which means we get paralyzed.’ 

Stern’s background includes multiple combat tours, a Purple Heart and special operations experience in areas including counter-terrorism, hostage rescue and unconventional warfare. 

He now heads the foundation, which rescues Americans and allies from conflict and disaster zones and carried out the daring extraction of American citizen Kirillo Alexandrov after he was arrested by Russian forces in Ukraine and held on trumped-up charges.

The veteran is said to be known as the ‘American magician’ in Russian intelligence circles for his ability to outwit their formidable networks. 

He told Metro that Grey Bull pulls off such missions ‘on a budget that is smaller than the oil filters in the GCHQ motor pool.’ 

‘We’re not more capable than the US and UK government agencies but their management culture means they find it safer to do nothing,’ he said.  

‘Whereas the Russians know they’ll send 40 ships and if a ship gets sunk it’s the cost of doing business and if the crew gets arrested they’ll negotiate them out later.  

‘My team has completed 728 missions since August 2021, and not a single one of those should have ever been done when you consider the US has a trillion-dollar-a-year security budget.  

‘It’s not a resource issue, it’s not a capability issue, it’s a lack of saying “we’re going to bring the fight to the enemy, we’re going to break some eggs, because if not we’ll be at war.” 

‘I think if D-Day happened today, we would lose.

‘On D-Day, were the Americans, Brits or Poles radioing back to the generals asking whether to go forward or left or right?

‘They were enabled, culturally, to find the Germans and hit them in the face as expeditiously as possible. They were told that this was a good thing for the world and Hitler was the bad guy, and to go and get him.’ 

Stern’s comments align with those made this week by Beth Sanner, a retired US intelligence officer who briefed Donald Trump during his last presidency and believes a ‘toolkit’ for responding to grey zone operations by hostile nations needs to be developed.  

Sanner told the Spycast Podcast, run by the International Spy Museum in Washington DC, that Western intelligence agencies are ‘risk adverse’ when it comes to dealing with clandestine attacks.

Speaking about one incident of deep-sea sabotage, she said: ‘We have attribution which means determining who, and then you have the second thing, which is what penalty is the appropriate retaliation?

‘Do you send a missile into Russia for that?

‘You can’t retaliate with military force so that takes us back to an area where we have not developed a tool kit in the United States, or our allies and we’re just at the beginning of doing that.’  

Stern believes that the Western agencies and militaries’ war-time predecessors would not have been as shackled.

‘It’s an indicator of leadership versus management,’ he said.

‘There needs to be a balance but it’s swung too far to the management side. If this was World War Two, that Russian spy ship would be sunk, no one would be talking about it. Would not even be a consideration. 

‘They were at war, and they knew it. We are at war, and we don’t know it.’ 

Responding to the spy ship incident, the Ministry of Defence said ‘keeping the country safe is the government’s first duty’ and the UK is ‘playing a leading role’ in countering the Russian threat in European waters. 

Mr Healey said: ‘National security is our government’s first duty and a foundation of our Plan for Change.

‘Alongside our Joint Expeditionary Force and NATO allies, we are strengthening our response to ensure that Russian ships and aircraft cannot operate in secrecy near UK or NATO territory. 

‘We will continue to call out the malign activity that Putin directs, cracking down on the Russian shadow fleet to prevent funding for his illegal invasion of Ukraine.’ 

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