Ranking the three NFL wild-card teams with best chance of a deep playoff run

The NFL postseason begins on Saturday with Super Wild-Card Weekend. For the league’s six wild-card teams (Broncos, Chargers, Commanders, Packers, Steelers, Vikings), each is seeking to become the first since the 2021 49ers to reach their conference championship game.

Here are the three who can make the most noise in the playoffs.

3. Washington Commanders (12-5)

Commanders rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels heads back to where he started his NFL career in the wild-card round. Washington lost to Tampa Bay, 37-20, way back in Week 1, when the Saints and Cowboys looked like playoff contenders. So, yeah, it’s been a while.

Daniels, the likely Associated Press Offensive Rookie of the Year, set the NFL record for highest completion percentage among rookie quarterbacks with at least 150 pass attempts (69 percent). Washington is the hottest team entering the playoffs, winning its last five games.

Daniels has done an excellent job handling the football this year, throwing only nine interceptions. He has a favorable matchup against a Bucs defense that has only picked off opposing quarterbacks seven times and is limping heading into the playoffs.

Bucs safety Jordan Whitehead will miss the postseason after being involved in an automobile accident, while safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (knee) and cornerback Jamel Dean’s (knee) statuses are up in the air, although head coach Todd Bowles expressed optimism both could play against Washington.

Tampa Bay needs them. Because if either is unable to go, the rematch should go to the Commanders.

2. Minnesota Vikings (14-3)

The Vikings’ punishment for losing their Week 18 winner-take-all NFC North “Sunday Night Football” showdown with the Lions (15-2) is a trip to the West Coast to play the NFC West champion Rams (10-7), who they lost 30-20 to earlier this season a week after a 31-29 loss to Detroit.

Could history repeat itself?

Led by Super Bowl LVI-winning quarterback Matthew Stafford and head coach Sean McVay, the Rams are a team the rest of the NFC should be less than thrilled made the field. 

Under defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings are the league’s most blitz-heavy team, which plays into Stafford’s strengths. According to Pro Football Focus data, Stafford completed 66.5 percent of his attempts for 1,424 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions when blitzed this season.

Minnesota has a brutal matchup, but it didn’t win 14 games by accident. The Vikings have an outstanding pass rush, ranking sixth in pressure rate (25.3 percent) and tied for fourth in sacks (49). While Stafford is excellent at identifying blitzes, he’s been one of the league’s worst quarterbacks when pressured, throwing two touchdowns and six interceptions. (h/t PFF)

Per Sumer Sports data, the Rams operate out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers) at the league’s second-highest rate (80.9 percent). Minnesota is third in defensive expected points added per play against 11 personnel.

Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold must play better than last Sunday against the Lions when he was 18-of-41 for 166 yards, and he has a strong infrastructure around him to do so.

If Minnesota advances past the Rams, it will likely play the Eagles (14-3) or Lions on the road (or host the Commanders) in the divisional round. The two likelier options would be daunting, but writing off the Vikings is foolish.

1. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

The Chargers were the biggest beneficiaries of the Bengals’ Week 18 win against the Steelers. As a result, Los Angeles moved into the 5-seed, where it got the most favorable wild-card matchup, playing the struggling Texans (10-7).

With the 2-seed Bills (13-4) and 3-seed Ravens (12-5) expected to win their games, the Chargers are well-positioned to play the Chiefs (15-2) in the divisional round at Arrowhead.

The Chargers lost their two games to Kansas City during the regular season by a combined nine points, including a walk-off field goal on the road in Week 14. The next time they play, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Chargers emerge on top.