Ranking the Australian Open men’s quarterfinals

After a week of grueling action, the men’s quarterfinals are set at the 2025 Australian Open. 

The first week saw top-ranked players such as World. No. 4 Taylor Fritz, No. 5 Daniil Medvedev and No. 6 Casper Ruud suffer upset losses. However, the top-three seeds and 10-time winner Novak Djokovic came away unscathed — setting up an exciting slate of Round of 8 ties. 

Here, we rank the four quarterfinals in terms of excitement, stakes and recent head-to-head records.

No. 4
Unseeded Lorenzo Sonego versus 21st-seeded Ben Shelton

The veteran Italian was the dream crusher of the first week as he ousted Joao Fonseca and Learner Tien — a pair of promising teenagers — to clinch his first-ever major quarterfinal. Sonego will attempt to crush the dreams of another aspiring youngster, Shelton, who’s a win away from his maiden Australian Open semifinal. The 22-year-old American hasn’t had a great run at slams since his 2023 U.S. Open final-four finish. A win here will do wonders for him to get his new season off in a blaze. The two men are 1-1 in career head-to-head but Shelton won their only encounter on hard courts — at the 2022 Cincinnati Masters. Shelton is the favorite but Sonego seems to be a man on a mission.

No.3
Top-seeded Jannik Sinner versus eighth-seeded Alex de Minaur  

Sinner has won 18 consecutive hard-court major matches, dating back to last year’s Australian Open and U.S. Open. As such, he’s the overwhelming favorite to repeat at Melbourne Park. Standing in his way is Australia’s De Minaur, one of the fastest-rising players on the Tour who made three consecutive QF appearances at the last three majors of 2024. While De Minaur will have the crowd behind him at Rod Laver Arena, it’s hard to foresee him unseating Sinner, who owns a 9-0 head-to-head record. In their latest clashes at the Davis Cup and ATP Finals, Sinner crushed the Aussie in straight sets. The only thing working against Sinner is the undisclosed illness that nearly cost him in the fourth round.  

No.2
Second-seeded Alexander Zverev versus 12th-seeded Tommy Paul

Fresh off a career year (69-21), Zverev is primed to end his near-decade-long wait for a major title. Exactly a year ago, he choked in the fifth set against Medvedev to be denied his first Australian Open finals appearance. He would follow up that performance with a finals loss at Roland Garros and back-to-back losses to Fritz at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. While he doesn’t have to contend with Fritz this time, another American, World No. 12 Paul, stands in his way. Paul owns a 2-0 career head-to-head record but both his wins came before the 2022 season. Zverev is a much-improved player with his lower defensive stance and newfound aggression in volleys. This promises to be a close affair.

No. 1
Third-seeded Carlos Alcaraz versus seventh-seeded Novak Djokovic  

This was an easy choice. After losing in back-to-back Wimbledon finals to Alcaraz, Djokovic got some revenge in their gold-medal match at last year’s Paris Olympics. The Serb owns a 2-0 record in their only two hardcourt matchups and a 4-3 advantage overall. It’s worth noting that all three of Alcaraz’s wins came on either grass or clay, making Djokovic the favorite despite being the lower seed. A match of this magnitude would typically occur deeper in the draw; Djokovic’s decision to skip several year-ending events in 2024 dropped him to World No. 7. Alcaraz enters as the slight favorite, per ESPNBet, but this writer is predicting a Djokovic victory. The Serb owns the record for most Australian Open titles with 10.