Biden may end up losing like Hillary Clinton (more on that in a minute), but Trump’s job is significantly harder this time around. While Trump trailed Clinton at this point, the race was simply much closer in 2016.
But it goes beyond just the margin. Look at Biden’s vote percentage. He’s at just a little bit north of 50% in the average of all the national polls. Clinton’s support was only in the low 40s before the debates. Even Trump, averaging around 43% in the polls, is getting a higher percentage than he was four years ago at this time.
There were a lot more undecided or third party voters at this point in the 2016 cycle. A little less than 20% of voters were undecided or going with a third party candidate. Today, it’s less than 10%.
This undecided/third party group of voters were a pool that Trump could attract to make up the deficit he had to Clinton.
Given that there are far fewer undecided/third party voters this time, the chance of that happening again is slimmer than in 2016.
Moreover, we still have to get through three debates. Debates don’t usually move the dial that much, but it’s completely conceivable that Biden’s national lead is slimmed a point or two by them.
The bottom line remains the same. Biden has been and continues to be ahead. That lead is sizable, but doesn’t guarantee anything.
World News || Latest News || U.S. News