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NFL Props: the Scope and Future of Football Betting

Charles McNeil is credited as the man who developed the point spread, a betting format that has revolutionized the world of American sports betting. The point spread was invented in the 1940s, and has continued to serve bookmakers to this day.

In case you’re new to sports betting, the point spread is a mathematical system that represents the perceived winning team’s margin of victory in a sports game. For instance, a team assigned a 6-point favorite must win by more than six points to cover the spread. This means that a bettor only wins when the team he bets on covers the spread.

Many analyses have shown that the spread system makes sport betting more attractive to gamblers, especially when there are debates about the team that should cover the spread. The point spread system has also benefited the TV market by helping to boost ratings, and contributed to the growth of sports in general.

Football point spreads are constantly featured in newspapers and sports magazines as far back as the 1950s, despite the illegality of sports betting in the US. At the time, Nevada was the only state where you could wager on sports.

However, a lot has changed since the Supreme Court’s ruling in 2018 when the federal ban on sports betting was lifted. The ruling has helped to expand the  point spread even further, as more than 30 states, football franchises, and the media have swung into the betting space. But 80 years after its invention, it seems America oddsmakers and bettors are leaning towards a new favorite — prop bets.

The demographics of sports betting has changed tremendously over the years. Recent studies from Civic Science shows that about 50% of Americans aged 21-29 years old have engaged in online betting at least once. The overwhelming population of young bettors are beginning to place more bets on player props than the traditional point spread, over/under, or money line metrics.

Player Props: the New King

Few years ago, the majority of NFL sports bets were in the three traditional offerings; the point spread, over/under, and moneyline odds on which team gets the W. In comparison, only about 15 to 20% of total bets were placed on props. Fast forward to 2022 and we’re seeing an entirely different trend.

According to FanDuel sportsbook, younger bettors between the age of 21 and 35 are more likely to bet on player props as opposed to team performances. This trend is even more evident thanks to the increasing popularity of one-game-parlays (OGPs) that allow players to place bets on multiple narratives of a football game. As of this writing, point spread only accounts for just under 12% of the legs of FanDuel’s OGPs.

For years now and in most states, Americans could only gamble on sports via fantasy games. This led to many fans investing their time into player performances as opposed to team outcomes. Today, the opportunity to bet on different sporting events continues to expand across the country, and fantasy sport fans are driving the player props trend to heightened popularity.

The demand for player props is on the high, and sportsbooks across the country are developing new ways to expand the scope of their offerings. In the near future, lots of new innovations, like in-game player stats, odds updates and live prop bets will become the new normal.

Prop bets, like receiving, rushing, passing, player touchdown odds, interceptions, and other metrics used to be a Super Bowl thing. But now, sportsbooks are starting to incorporate these offerings into regular season and playoff games. The props market is indeed growing.

What is the most bet on player props?

Bettors are more likely to bet on star players, like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and the likes. And although many bettors wager on passing yards, the most prop market is…. You guessed it! Touchdown odds.

For Super Bowl LVI, there were more bets on the reigning Super Bowl MVP Cooper Cupp scoring a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals than on the game’s point distribution, per reports from Point Beats. And according to FanDuel, the touchdown at any time during the game is the most popular NFL player prop.

Summary

The point spread has served the betting industry for years, but is currently in danger of becoming a foregone alternative. Yes, the point distribution is still the most popular type of bet across all online and land-based sportsbooks. However, its reign as king may end pretty soon.

As for player props, the increasing popularity of sports wagering across the US and the surging change in betting demographics is a sign of good things to come. Welcome to the future of sports betting.

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