Is the Blue Jackets’ Early Season Success Sustainable? – The Hockey Writers Columbus Blue Jackets Latest News, Analysis & More

The Columbus Blue Jackets have had a solid start to the season, going 5-3-1 through their first nine games. As of Oct. 31, they sit fifth in the Metropolitan Division standings in both points (11) and points percentage (.611). In spite of this, they actually are in a playoff spot due to the slow start of many teams in the Atlantic Division. In fact, they would currently be sitting third in the Atlantic, ahead of the Toronto Maple Leafs. While it is far too early to start predicting playoffs, it is a welcome change of pace for the Blue Jackets to not be sitting at the bottom of the standings at the end of October.

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The Blue Jackets haven’t made the playoffs since the shortened 2019-2020 season, where they went 33-22-15 and beat the Maple Leafs in the play-in round, just to lose to the Stanley Cup-winning Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round. Since then, the Blue Jackets’ best season was the 2021-2022 season where they went 37-38-7. After a few rough seasons, this team and its fans are desperate for some success. So what about this season has been different so far? Is their early season success sustainable? Here are two reasons why the Blue Jackets have started hot, and a look at whether they can keep it up.

Franchis-Record Scoring

The Blue Jackets have continued to set records for most goals scored to start the season in franchise history. So far, they have scored 35 goals with a 3.89 goals-per-game average. That’s four goals more than the previous record of 31, which has happened in three previous seasons. So is this team really that dominant offensively? Well, yes and no. They are currently sitting first in the NHL in shooting percentage at 14.21%. While certainly impressive so far, there are concerns about how sustainable this is. For instance, their 2-0 win against the New York Islanders had one goal from a lucky deflection off of a skate and the other was scored on an empty net.

FIRE THE CANNON!

The Blue Jackets are on the board thanks to a Damon Severson goal!#CBJ pic.twitter.com/EI92Qi1THx

— FanDuel Sports Network Columbus (@FanDuelSN_CBUS) October 31, 2024

Per MoneyPuck, the Blue Jackets are last in the league in expected goals for at 2.63. That means they are scoring goals at a significantly higher rate than expected. This could be attributed to the fortunate schedule the Blue Jackets have started with. Five of their nine games have been against teams playing their second night of a back-to-back. In four of those games, the team played their backup goalie. There is a high likelihood that the Blue Jackets’ high shooting percentage could be related to facing quite a few secondary goaltenders. If that shooting percentage starts to dip, the Blue Jackets could quickly start to see their goal scoring dry up.

Blue Jackets’ Improved Goaltending

An important improvement for the team this season has been the play of the Blue Jackets’ netminders. Elvis Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov have both played well so far, with the former stopping 56 of 57 shots in the last two games. Merzlikins ranks 22 in NHL goaltenders this season in goals saved above expected (GSAx), posting a 0.8 GSAx in four games.  Tarasov isn’t far behind with a -0.2 GSAx that puts him at 33 out of 71 goaltenders this season. For comparison, Merzlikins finished 83rd out of 98 in GSAx last season, and Tarasov finished 52nd.

Is this improvement in net sustainable? This seems more likely than the scoring streak the Blue Jackets are on, although the reason might surprise you. The goalies’ success may actually be, at least in part, due to the improved team defense being played in front of them. Merzlikins commented about the play in front of him after his shutout against the Islanders, saying “They helped a lot. They’re really working hard for his. This is our shutout.” The team defense has done a better job cleaning up rebounds and taking away open chances in front of the net which have been a real problem the last few seasons. They have also had cleaner zone exits and limited defensive turnovers. All of this seems due to the new system and play style under head coach Dean Evason and will hopefully remain consistent through the season.

Flash in the Pan or New Normal?

While the scoring pace is almost certainly going to regress to a normal rate (Mathieu Olivier has four goals on 8 shots), the improvements in goals against should hopefully be more sustainable. The last three seasons have seen the Blue Jackets allow 297, 298, and a franchise record-setting 329 goals against. This season’s improvements have the Blue Jackets on pace for 228 goals against, which would be a massive improvement. Even if their current scoring pace of 319 goals for this season slows down, this team absolutely could finish with more goals for than against. That hasn’t happened since the 2018-19 season where they had 256 goals for and 231 goals against. Those numbers seem attainable this season, and if that happens, this Blue Jackets’ team might just be knocking on the door of the playoffs.