Stock Market

Volatility Guaranteed. FED week, but bullish overall for CME_MINI:MNQM2023 by CaptainLogik

As a futures trader, I’m always looking at the indices for my overall targets and narrative, but then I look at the fibs and fib extensions to determine trading targets on futures . What I believe happened today was a bull rally to lift price high enough to ABSORB a fed rate hike. I think the .25 hike will come, the reaction to this will be a day trade selloff, but it won’t change the narrative that we’ve turned long weeks ago. A strong buying moment is coming as the price action plunges to make a second confirmation on the forming short term channel. On my futures chart, the green line extensions are something I learned from watching other futures traders. So, my green lines are this last February’s fib extensions, volume adjusted. We’re 400% overbought. That’s crazy, but a sign we’re running up and selling is slowing. (Mind you, volume is low. I expect a 1 day plunge to test this forming channel. I plan on taking a huge long once it taps that 0% line of the fib channel with a very tight stop. Because when those bottoms touch they should not dilly dally. They should spring away like the first one did, with a sense of strong support. So I expect the FED action to trigger that final dip, and a buy there should be held into at least wednesday next week. Well above the weekly 200 MA hope. That said… we are approaching a major long term hypothetical fib moment.

I linked below to my QQQ chart. Do we take the extreme path? Or do we calm down and sit right on the 50 yard gold line? You’ll notice I’ve been operating on the idea that the tech sector is fighting for control at a “hypothetical fib channel” 50 yard line. I think to justify this channel theoretical channel, we need to burst up and touch the 61.8% level, which is the rule for any channel. Generally, exploration touched and defines the 50% and then tops at the 61.8% before any potential large pull back. TSLA did this, and I believe it has since double bottomed and will now run hard to finish it’s current forming channel. I think tesla was not allowed to go to completion, before getting drawn down, so it will overreact and surge to new highs before calming to fair prices around 250 again. This has implications for tech as a whole. But that means a stupid 100% gain this year on QQQ if we break out past the 50% of my theoretical channel. The alternative is we hit the gold line and fiddle on it for 2 years before anything exciting happens. We don’t go into recession, but we also don’t have any wild times for a really LONG time. Sigh…

I want to make it clear, I don’t trade news, fed, or any bias you have. I watch the volume , and other market internals, and I trade what they show. Only raw data. And the chart I’m seeing on tech is trading like a small cap. I’m not saying that’s smart, or good for 401ks longer term, but that’s what it’s doing. Running up, sudden failures, then full on low volume rallies. But here’s the thing. We need this big huge stupid run up. What will happen is the MACD and all the other indicators will show that the new high is on low volume and momentum, which means price is divergent with interest. When institutions see that on the monthly and weekly basis, they will start fully dumping volume to get best prices. I think we need to see months of a Wyckoff exhaustion top trying to fight under or on my 61.8% fib on that QQQ . And when it fails, it will fail a lot. As it should. But until we see a clear signal top, I think it’s bulls bulls bulls.

And hitting that fib is good. It means this large channel I made is valid, so even if we fall really far after this for a few years, the trend… overall… will still be inside a bull channel , making higher highs. And money go up yo. Money go up. Don’t make money go down, grandpa Stu don’t likey when money go down. :)

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