I finally shorted, BUT…. for AMEX:SPY by Steversteves

Okay, so I am officially short on SPY and IWM .

But there are BUTS. Lol.

So here is what I am seeing for the short:

1. First and foremost its overbought.

2. Second, We still have a bearish QCOM’s 99% and looking back QCOM does actually seem to follow SPY / the broader market a little bit. Not the most solid argument, I admit, but an argument none the less :-).

3. Next, its that little channel/flag that SPY and IWM are creating. Its coloured in the aqua colour. I am expecting, at the VERY LEAST, to test the bottom of that flag.

4. DSL needs to be re-tested. We broke out, but for a breakout to be sustained, we need a re-test of the DSL line which is right now around 396.

5. MSFT earnings were my immediate concern because I could see that it wanted to go to 255 and I didn’t know how that would initially be taken by the market and whether it would be held. Why 255? Because of MSFT’s monthly math levels. MSFT respects them (this was the basis of the failed attempt at long day trading this on Monday lol):

Didn’t reach 255 exactly, but its close enough for me to feel secure in knowing that the move I envisioned essentially played out and is over now.

6. IWM . IWM tells all. It did not respond to MSFT earnings aside from a knee jerk reaction (Yes, it does not track MSFT I am aware. But it does respond to market movement to an extent and can signal “fake” moves in the market). But that’s not the basis of my thinking here. The basis of my thinking is IWM’s curious avoidance of its swing high range:

The setup is identical to SPY , too but the more telling thing is that IWM is avoiding the swing high range despite consistently bullish momentum. I see this when its about to do a tumble.

7. :O I thought our 78% target was unhit, but it was actually hit! Not good…. anyway, that was reason 7 but the point is now moot.

The probs:

The probs. The probs are where those buts come in.

The probs were able to identify IDENTICAL, like completely identical days for ES1! , IWM AND SPY .

They are DECESIVELY bearish , but only on ES1! . Like very clearly bearish on ES1! .

The probs on IWM and SPY support the thesis of a gap down; HOWEVER, they do retain a bullish undertone for intra-day trading. Meaning that, I wouldn’t bet on massive tanking tomorrow. But I would except us to either gap down or move towards the lower targets upon open only to attract some zealous dip buyers.

The targets to pay attention to on SPY are the 2nd and third bear targets on SPY .

They are:

1. 398.11 (High probability; however we came close in after hours essentially hitting it); and

2. 396.36 (This corresponds roughly to a re-test of that DSL line and a test of the bottom of this little channel I have plotted out)

The targets to pay attention to on IWM are:

1. 185.80 (modest probability but corresponds to a re-test of DSL ); and

2. 184.57

So yeah. Long story short, I am short. But conservatively so. There is a lot of optimism right now and so what I want to stress is be careful and don’t FOMO short off open tomorrow. Because the probability doesn’t support it… yet. That said, it can still absolutely sell. I am just not getting strong sell readings on the probabilities.

That said, I do expect this to be a losing battle for bulls at this point unless we reclaim the overhead trendline tomorrow.

My thoughts!

Safe trades everyone!

Note:

Its that time of the month that day trader Steve is out for a bit as he has to put his NP hat on for the next 4 days, then his Student hat on for the following 2 days (never a dull moment). Soooo…….. I won’t be spamming Tradingview as much and will be laying low from day trading and just checking in to position myself for swings. I will be around to answer your questions though!

Take care everyone and thanks for reading :-).