* Cycle Bottom Indicator & CBI Extensions
* Log Chart key levels
* 200W ( ) Historic Cycle Bottom Support
* Historic Cycle Accumulation Zone [Between the 150W (Blak/Gray Line) and 200W (Navy Blue Line)]
* 300W Historic BLACK SWAN event under evaluation support
The premise considered in this post is BTC is currently in the Bear Market phase of a new cycle and is approaching a new cycle bottom and accumulation range.
CYCLE BOTTOM INDICATOR
As per prior posts. The extension dashed lines extrapolated out in this chart at this point of time estimate a cycle bottom may be put in around August 2022 (based on current moving average inputs).
As per discussions regarding the 150W and 200W , the potential upcoming golden box represents the price and time we might spend in a cycle accumulation range (based on prior historic price behavior). Historically the 200W has resembled a key line of defense for the bulls where buyers has stepped in during the darkest days in Crypto to defend price. The bouncing nature of price between the 150W and 200W suggests this in the past this is a range ‘Smart Money’ has targeted for cycle accumulation when believed BTC has been sufficiently oversold and is undervalued. Prior Cycle Golden Box has been drawn for comparison reference.
The 300W resembles the worst case under evaluation support reached during an extreme ‘Black Swan’ event (unexpected event which causes wide spread panic selling in the market). The as drawn potential upcoming Green Box between the 200W and the 300W represent the time and price ranges we may experience in the drawn scenario (not historically we have not spent much time in the Green Box and the COVID event is the first time we have reached these levels of undervaluation to date). NOTE: Prior Cycle Green Box has been drawn for comparison reference.
The above Worst Case Analysis is combined with some simple TA and Key Historic Support levels on the Log Chart. The worst case Cycle Bottom shown on the chart price levels assumes the current trend direction and uses measured moves which align with key long chart levels and potentially the 300W (Violet line).
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