Sanjiv Bhasin exclusive interview: Sensex, Nifty, Bank Nifty outlook; New all-time highs seen

BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50 may touch new highs by mid-May this year, says Sanjiv Bhasin, Director, IIFL Securities. Bhasin sees a potential rally of 10 per cent in the 50-share index in the next two months, pegging a target price at 19,000. He also believes that Bank Nifty may rise to 39,500 levels in May this year. BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 rose to all-time highs of 62,245.43 and 18,604.45, respectively, in October last year. Sanjiv Bhasin in an interview with Surbhi Jain of FinancialExpress.com, said that amid current market scenario, investors may look at banks, reality, metals, cement, and IT sectors stocks. For new-age companies like Zomato, Paytm, Nykaa stocks, Bhasin has suggested to hold these stocks for at least 2-3 years for good returns. Here’re edited excerpts.

How do you read the market reaction after the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates?
Already priced in as Federal Reserve has been behind the curve & bond yields are pricing in 50 basis points in May.However underline remains the US economy is in very strong growth momentum as indicated by the Federal Reserve & higher rates actually has seen markets do well in the medium term

Like the US Fed, do you expect similar rate hikes by RBI in the current calendar year?
For once Indian outlook seems much more benign regarding inflation and RBI Governor language who says all liquidity concerns will be met with ease. There maybe 25 basis points rise depending on extension of geopolitical risk and oil prices.

Which are the sectors you would look at amid the current market scenario?
Amid current share market scenario, banks, reality, metals, cement, and IT sectors can be looked at.

What are your views on new-age companies like Zomato, PolicyBazaar, Paytm, Nykaa? What is your near to medium term view?
Take small bets but look for at least two to three years holding for real time returns.

How will a Rs 25/litre hike in diesel price impact bulk users?
Already gets discounted as demand in the short term is robust with reopening themes just starting out as revenge spending gathers momentum, however, certain sectors like cement will raise prices, and margins could be under pressure for maybe two quarters.

What are the key levels to watch out for Nifty, Bank Nifty? How important is it for the Nifty to hold on to the 17000 mark?
17800 in Nifty will be hit on foreign selling comeback as markets react to any positives from Russia/Ukraine. Bank Nifty will see 37700-38000 by next month.

What are the key triggers that the market can face in the financial year 2022-23?
Reopening. Indian demographics are positive with demand for housing and consumption being at its highest. Corporate results to be best ever as margins and volumes surge with the biggest catalyst being Indian inflation outlook being more benign than the US. Auto consumption back to normal as supply chain disruption gets resolved

Where do you see crude oil is heading to on charts?
Crude may have already topped out US$135 levels, and will see consolidation depending on daily news flow in geopolitics; expect US$80 by end of May, if it doesn’t sustain at these levels.

Is it time to buy IT stocks or wait for sometime?
IT stocks are best hedged against inflation, rupee and external outsourcing. Can start a SIP anytime. Top IT stock picks are HCL Technologies, and Tech Mahindra.

Where do you see BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 going ahead?
Benchmark indices may touch new highs by mid-May this year. Nifty may hit 19,000, and Bank Nifty 39500 levels.