Rupee likely to open lower following weaker peers; USDINR pair to trade with positive bias in this range

The Indian Rupee is expected to depreciate on Wednesday amid elevated crude prices. Investors’ focus will be on US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance before the Senate; and CPI number from the UK. Over the near term, USDINR pair is likely to trade within a range of 77.80 and 78.40 with an upward bias. Snapping its three-day rising streak, the rupee declined against the US dollar in the previous session as persistent foreign fund outflows and a jump in crude oil prices weighed on investor sentiment. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 78.00 and traded in a narrow range before it finally ended at 78.13, down 15 paise over its previous close.

Dilip Parmar, Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

“The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly lower following weaker peers. The yen’s slump may eventually lead to competitive devaluations across Asia starting with the Korean won and Chinese Yuan. USDJPY jumps to 136.49, reaching the pair’s highest since September 1998 and currently trading around 136.26. The forward markets indicate a 3-4 paise lower opening for the rupee at domestic bourses. Technically, spot USDINR is having resistance at 78.30 and support at 77.70. The bias remains bullish as long as the pair sustains above 77.70. The focus will be on Jerome Powell’s appearance before the Senate later today appears to be a cause of angst.”

Gaurang Somaiya, Forex & Bullion Analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services

“Rupee continued to trade in a narrow range and volatility for the currency remained low even after the Federal Reserve decided to raise rates by 75bps last week. Focus will now shift to the Fed Chairman’s testimony and expectation is that the commentary could be hawkish. This could continue to keep the dollar supported at lower levels and keep major crosses under pressure. The dollar slipped marginally after data showed U.S. existing home sales tumbled to a two-year low in May as prices jumped to a record high and mortgage rates increased further, pushing out entry-level buyers from the market. Today, focus will be on the CPI number from the UK and Fed Chairman’s testimony from the US and is likely to trigger volatility for the major crosses. We expect the USDINR(Spot) to trade with a positive bias and quote in the range of 77.70 and 78.50.”

Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities

“USDINR spot closed 9 paise higher at 78.09, thanks to importer hedging and oil demand. Over the near term we expect USDINR to trade within a range of 77.80 and 78.40 with an upward bias. With forward premium on a % of spot trading at 11 year lows, there will be more of importer demand and less of exporter selling. Carry traders may be disincentivized due such low premium.”

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