What does Trump’s threat to seize Greenland mean for the EU and NATO?

Donald Trump has doubled down on his threat to use military force to seize control of Greenland, a self-governing territory belonging to the Kingdom of Denmark, stoking tensions with his European allies.

Denmark should cede the autonomous territory to the US to “protect the free world,” Trump argued on Tuesday, threatening to slap economic sanctions on the EU member state if it doesn’t. 

His comments came as his son, Donald Trump Jr., visited the island accompanied by his father’s key advisors.

Trump’s interest in Greenland, the world’s largest island and home to around 57,000 people, is well known since his first presidency when he reportedly briefed aides to draw up plans to buy the island.

The island is a hotbed of critical raw materials and rare earths. The melting of the Arctic ice also opens up strategic opportunities for trade, energy and transport in a region of the world over which geopolitical rivals are tussling for influence.

But his recent rhetoric has ruffled feathers in Europe, with Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen hitting back saying that “Greenland is not for sale and will not be in the future either.”

French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot has warned Trump against threatening the European Union’s “sovereign borders.”

“The sovereignty of EU states has to be respected,” a European Commission spokesperson said on Wednesday.

What is Greenland’s status within the European Union and NATO?

Having been a crown territory of Norway and Denmark for centuries, Greenland was officially made a part of Denmark in 1953, and became a self-governing, autonomous Danish territory in 1979. Its government has autonomous legislative power over a raft of issues including taxes, trade and justice, but Denmark continues to have a strong hold on the territory’s foreign affairs and defence policy.

Although Greenland is not an EU Member State, its status as an overseas EU territory gives it access to EU funding and freedom of movement for Greenlanders, who are considered EU citizens.

The territory is also covered by the North Atlantic Treaty, meaning an attack on Greenland would compel other NATO allies, including the US, to come to its defence.

Euronews has reached out to NATO for comment on president Trump’s comments but has not yet received a response.

Why is Trump eyeing Greenland?

The president-elect has cited national security motives for his interest in the island, but it is also seen as a strategic hotbed of materials crucial in the geopolitical race for economic dominance.

The receding ice in the Arctic means potentially shorter, quicker trading routes as well as more opportunities to drill for oil and mine for minerals.

Greenland’s strategic importance grows in times of geopolitical instability, Mikkel Runge Olesen of the Danish Institute for International Studies told Euronews.

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“If relations between world powers are good, in the Arctic specifically, then Greenland becomes less strategically valuable,” Olesen said. “So as the US gears up for more confrontation with Russia and China, Greenland presence becomes more important.”

“The US’s strategic interest in Greenland is as much about their own presence as it is about denying their rivals’ presence”, he added.

The shortest route from North America to Europe runs through the Arctic and over Greenland, making it critical for the US’s ballistic missile early-warning system.

The Pituffik Space Base, previously known as Thule Air Base, in Greenland is the US’s northernmost military outpost. 

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How could the current push for Greenland’s independence change things?

An independence movement has recently gained traction in Greenland, boosted by revelations of misconduct by Danish authorities during the previous century, including an involuntary birth control campaign imposed on Greenlandic women in the 1960s and 70s.

Under a 2009 agreement with Denmark, Greenland can hold an independence referendum, a prospect the prime minister Múte Egede hinted at during his new year address last Friday. 

“The history and current conditions have shown that our cooperation with the Kingdom of Denmark has not succeeded in creating full equality,” Egede said.

While it is currently unclear whether an independent Greenland may seek NATO membership, many experts point towards the example of Iceland, which became a NATO member after gaining independence from Denmark.

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The potential economic fallout makes independence less attractive for some – the territory remains deeply reliant on Danish government funding, which amounts to some €600 million per year.

But the US could see an opportunity to offer economic support to an independent Greenland in exchange for more influence over the territory.

Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said on Wednesday that while Greenland “can become independent”, it cannot become an US state.

How could the EU and NATO react if Trump seized Greenland by force?

Trump’s rhetoric is particularly disruptive as he’s hinting at using military force against another NATO member state, Denmark, which the US is technically obliged to protect under the North Atlantic Treaty.

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While tensions between NATO member states are not unprecedented – territorial disputes between Greece and Turkey being one example – Trump’s threats against Denmark come amid mounting European concerns that his incoming administration will weaken the military alliance that has been so critical in repelling Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

EU member states such as Denmark can also trigger Article 42.7 of the EU Treaty, known as the ‘mutual assistance clause’, to oblige other Member States to come to their aid when under attack.

A European Commission spokesperson confirmed on Wednesday that the island would benefit from the clause. 

Trump’s rhetoric alone could be enough to make European allies uncomfortable. The European bloc is itself nervous about its waning competitiveness vis-à-vis global competitors and its own security, threatened by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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Threats to use military and economic force to weaken a Member State amounts to “more than a Danish problem,” according to Olesen.