How Meloni’s al-Assad bet in Syria failed

The European Union’s cautious approach to Syria’s new leadership is shared by one key player who had placed a bet on al-Assad’s now fallen regime: Italy

The President of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, went to Turkey to understand Ankara’s plans for its neighbour’s future, while the UN sent its special envoy to talk to the new leaders in Damascus. Meanwhile, Rome seems to have already played its hand without success.

How Italy tried to revive relations with al-Assad’s Syria

For months, the Meloni government had looked to reposition itself in the Middle East by focusing on Damascus. A report by French daily Le Monde referred to them as a “lost bet” in light of the rebels’ conquest of the Syrian capital on 8 December.

In July, Italy announced it would send an ambassador, Stefano Ravagnan, to Damascus. Ravagnan was previously stationed in Lebanon. With this move, Italy became the first EU country and the only G7 member to attempt diplomatic normalisation with Bashar al-Assad’s regime after thirteen years of civil war.

Now, Ravagnan has yet to present his credentials to the Syrian government, as the diplomatic residence was raided on 7 December by rebels advancing into Damascus. The Italian government’s decision to open a diplomatic mission seemed to mark a clear break from its long-standing position on Syria, which was traditionally aligned with France, Germany, the UK and the US.

A recent report from the Arabic edition of British newspaper The Independent shed light on a conversation that took place shortly before the regime fell, between Syrian intelligence chief Hassan Luqa and his Italian counterpart. According to Luqa, Giovanni Caravelli, the head of Italy’s foreign intelligence agency (Aise), had conveyed that Russia’s support for Syria could not be overlooked. However, the specifics of the support promised by Aise – led by Caravelli since 2020 – remained unclear.

Luqa referenced the support received from “Giovanni Caravelli, the head of the Italian secret services who explained that Russia’s support for Syria could not be ignored,” without however specifying the type of support promised by Aise.

It was a conversation that followed a meeting between the two in the previous months, which allegedly centred on the possibility of easing international sanctions on Syria in exchange for the creation of a safe zone inside the country where Syrian refugees who had arrived in Europe could return.

Le Monde writes that the Italian prime minister did not deny the conversation took place after being questioned on the matter in parliament and raises how in 2018 Ali Mamlouk, head of Syrian national security and already under international sanctions, was received in Rome by the Aise.

Cooperation between Rome and Damascus on Christian communities and post-earthquake aid

The Meloni government resumed contact with Syrian authorities, initially focusing on humanitarian issues, such as the aid sent by sea in February 2023 following the earthquake that struck Syria and Turkey.

This marked the first such initiative by an EU country since the Syrian revolution began in 2011, at a time when the Assad regime, with support from Russia and Iran, continued to bomb rebel-held areas and commit human rights violations, as reported by organisations on the ground.

In addition, there was a consistent emphasis on the country’s Christian minorities, with the Vatican even calling for a relaxation of international sanctions against Damascus.

On 11 December, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani reiterated that the protection of Christians in Syria remains a “priority” for Italian foreign policy – a statement which slightly differed from those of other European countries that welcomed Assad’s fall and later established contact with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

The balancing act between symbolic declarations and behind-the-scenes diplomacy is a constant in international politics, and the Arab world itself had progressively allowed al-Assad’s Syria to its fold in order to counter Iran’s influence in the region.

As of now, Italy has aligned itself with other EU countries (like Austria, Germany, Sweden, and Denmark) in suspending the processing of asylum applications from Syrian citizens.

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However, the French daily concluded in its report that Rome remains uncertain about its stance towards the interim HTS government, risking yet another “lost bet”.