Who’s Going to Win Top 2025 Grammy Awards? Our Fearless Predictions

Nominees: André 3000’s New Blue Sun, Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet, Charli XCX’s BRAT, Jacob Collier’s Djesse Vol. 4, Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft, Chappell Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department

Analysis: All of these contenders were nominated in their “genre album” categories except for Collier’s album, which was passed over for a nod for best pop vocal album. That’s not a good sign: No album has won album of the year without at least being nominated in its genre album category since the introduction of genre album categories in the mid-1990s.

Cowboy Carter, which is nominated for best country album, would be the first country album to win album of the year since Kacey Musgraves’ Golden Hour six years ago. BRAT, nominated for best dance/electronic album, would be the first album from that genre to win album of the year since Daft Punk’s Random Access Memories in 2014. New Blue Sun, nominated for best alternative jazz album, would be the first jazz album to win album of the year since Herbie Hancock’s River: The Joni Letters in 2008.

Swift has won four times in this category. She won most recently just last year for Midnights. If she wins again, she’ll become the first five-time winner in this category and just the third act in Grammy history to win back-to-back awards in this category, following Frank Sinatra (1966-67) and Stevie Wonder (1974-75).

Eilish and André 3000 have each won once in this category, André 3000 as a member of OutKast. If he wins, he’ll become the third former member of a group or duo to win for a solo debut album, following George Michael (Faith, 1989) and Lauryn Hill (The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill, 1999).

Roan would be the first artist to win for their first studio album since Billie Eilish won five years ago for When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?

Cowboy Carter features a large and diverse cast of featured artists, including pop legends Paul McCartney and Stevie Wonder and country greats Willie Nelson and Dolly Parton. Other artists featured on the album include Miley Cyrus, Post Malone, Shaboozey, Jon Batiste, Gary Clark Jr., The-Dream, Rhiannon Giddens, Pharrell, Nile Rodgers and Raphael Saadiq. If those artists, and people in their camps, vote for Cowboy Carter, that could help make the difference in a close race.

On Christmas Day, midway through the final-round voting period (Dec. 12-Jan. 3), Bey headlined the halftime show at a Texans-Ravens NFL game in her hometown of Houston, Texas. This marked the first time she had performed songs from Cowboy Carter in front of a live audience. Millions watched the performance live on Netflix and millions more streamed it afterwards.

This is the second time Swift and Beyoncé have gone head-to-head in this category. In 2010, Swift’s Fearless beat Bey’s I Am…Sasha Fierce. For the record, Bey’s subsequent losses in this category were to Beck, Adele and Harry Styles.

Few consider Cowboy Carter to be Beyoncé’s best album, but she’s overdue for a win in this category. Many would howl if Swift won a record-extending fifth award in this category before Beyoncé won her first. It would probably be in Swift’s best interest to lose this year and to be seen graciously applauding and cheering for Beyoncé. Eight years ago, Adele probably would have been better just off winning record and song of the year for “Hello” (as she did) and losing album of the year to Beyoncé’s Lemonade. When she swept all three awards for the second time, while Bey was passed over for album of the year for the third time, it was an uncomfortable moment – though Adele’s graciousness and generosity in that moment was heartening to see.

If Swift loses on Feb. 2, she just might have dodged a bullet. Would a record-extending fifth win be worth the aggravation of a thousand pieces saying “Beyoncé was robbed – again”?

Prediction: Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter