Champions League scenarios: Liverpool, Barcelona look to clinch top eight spots with open field behind them

We are six games into the UEFA Champions League action with the league phase ready for two more rounds of games before the knockout phase. The field is still relatively open, although teams have now started to book their places in the latter rounds — although no team is absolutely 100% certain of a round of 16 spot ahead of the midweek slate. Leaders Liverpool are most likely and have a knockout place already assured, but they have not yet locked up more than playoff access despite having a significant edge over everyone else. Barcelona are also in pursuit but right now there are more eliminated teams than there are qualified ones.

We take a look at the state of play as Champions League action returns for the final two rounds this week and next.

UCL top 8

Confirmed: None — yet.

Liverpool are already guaranteed a top 24 finish which is at least a playoff spot but Arne Slot’s Premier League and Champions League leaders should now become the first team to confirm their presence in the round of 16. The Reds can confirm that status with just one more point from games against Lille OSC and PSV Eindhoven and it is difficult to see the Merseysiders throwing things away over these last two games. If anything, they are more likely to finish the league phase with eight wins from eight games given their impressive 100% winning record so far which is on the line against a side unbeaten in five this midweek vs. LOSC.

UCL playoffs (top 24)

Confirmed: Liverpool and Barcelona.

Barcelona are just below Liverpool with five wins from six having lost their opening game and the Catalan giants are currently the most likely candidates to either edge the Reds to top spot or immediately follow them into the round of 16. For now, both have at least guaranteed a knockout phase appearance although Arne Slot’s side are more likely to go straight to the round of 16 given their three-point lead over Barca with two to play. Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Inter, Stade Brestois 29 and Lille also make up the top eight with two games to go although none of those sides are yet to be in a position to have officially reached the knockouts despite it looking likely for most of them — if not all. It would take a big results swing to change that, but Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and Milan are close by on 12 points with Atalanta and Juventus on 11.

Outsiders

Neither advanced nor eliminated, there are a handful of sides who are as close to the top eight as they are the elimination places — Benfica, Monaco, Sporting, Feyenoord and Club Brugge are all on 10 points which means that their next win, or loss, could have massive ramifications. Real Madrid and Celtic perhaps sneak into that conversation given that they are only one point further back of that same tally but the other big names below the Scottish giants have significant work ahead of them with two games left.

In danger

Surprisingly, Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain are both in this band along with PSV Eindhoven, Dinamo Zagreb and VfB Stuttgart who are all hovering around the cut-off point with two games left. In a tantalizing twist, the French giants face the Premier League champions as well as the Bundesliga outfit in their two final games which arguably holds the cards to this year’s big name possibly stumbling early on. Both PSG and City could yet avoid it but both will be desperate to not have to wait for the final day when they can likely assure themselves of their knockout place with a win in the penultimate round of games when they meet at Parc des Princes on Wednesday.

Scenarios

• Round of 16: Liverpool secure a top eight finish with a draw or better vs. Lille while a win for Barca virtually secures them a round of 16 spot too.
• Knockout playoffs: Arsenal, Leverkusen, Villa, Inter, Brest and Lille are sure of at least a top 24 finish and there at minimum a knockout berth with at least a point this midweek. However, to secure the top 8 now requires a complicated web of 10 results — as illustrated by Brest’s situation below.
• Brest can only secure top 8 this week if: They beat Shakhtar, Liverpool beat Lille, Bologna beat Dortmund, Feyenoord beat Bayern, Leverkusen beat Atletico, Girona beat Milan, Atalanta avoid defeat vs. Graz, Juventus draw with Brugge, Benfica do not win vs. Barca, Monaco do not win vs. Villa or Sparta beat Inter and Sporting do not win vs. Leipzig.
• Eliminated: Bologna will be eliminated if they fail to win their two remaining games and even six points might not be enough if City, PSV and/or Dinamo claim one point or better from their two remaining games. Salzburg, Red Star, Girona and Graz can take things to a final day with a win only — a draw will not be enough as it leaves them at least four points adrift of the top 24. Sparta and Shakhtar can still have a shot for their final games if they draw this week but it will be the slimmest of hopes. PSG nor Stuttgart will be officially eliminated until they play each other should they get a point or better this week but a man combination of nine results elsewhere could doom Paris in the event that they lose to City at home.
• PSG can only go out if: They lose to City, Real beat Salzburg, Celtic beat Young Boys, Benfica avoid defeat vs. Barca, Monaco avoid defeat vs. Villa, Sporting avoid defeat vs. Leipzig, PSG beat Red Star, Feyenoord avoid defeat vs. Bayern, Brugge avoid defeat vs. Bayern and Dinamo beat Arsenal.

Long shots

Those teams who can, mathematically at least, still make the knockouts but need a minimum of four points from their two remaining games include Shakhtar Donetsk, Sparta Praha, Sturm Graz, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Red Bull Salzburg and Bologna. Many of these sides are just waiting to finally be confirmed as out of the running despite some having made encouraging starts. However, at least for now, they are not 100% guaranteed to not see the knockout phase and that is further evidence of the value that the adoption of this new league phase has brought with it.

Going home

Confirmed: RB Leipzig, Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava.

Red Bull’s flagship side Leipzig was the first to fall this edition which was a surprise as Aston Villa confirmed that premature exit with a home loss in the sixth round of games. Salzburg are expected to follow shortly although Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava were the next two after the Germans. All three of those eliminated sides are on zero points with Bologna the next to likely drop out given that they are on two points which means that they can only tally eight by the end of league phase play which is still two short of the estimated 10-point barrier to reach the knockouts. Although it mathematically adds up right now, it is unlikely to remain the case for the Italians who you can argue do not have their fate in their own hands even if they were to win both of their remaining games.