CFB Week 10 knee-jerk reactions: Ohio State’s survival, SEC’s unpredictability, ACC race narrows

The college football season is entering crunch time. Every win is a step towards the ultimate goal and every loss feels like an elimination.

Here are some knee-jerk reactions to Saturday’s Week 10 action:

Ohio State vs. Indiana is now a Big Ten playoff game

The No. 4 Buckeyes escaped Happy Valley with a hard-fought 20-13 win over No. 3 Penn State, meaning they’re officially back in the driver’s seat when it comes to their Big Ten title game fate. There are still two more massive matchups left on Ohio State’s schedule, one of them Michigan of course, but the other will act as a conference playoff game.

When Ohio State hosts No. 13 Indiana on Nov. 23, it’s highly likely only one of them will be heading to Indianapolis to face No. 1 Oregon. The Hoosiers are off to their first 9-0 start in program history and haven’t shown any signs of slowing down. If Indiana’s only loss ends up being Ohio State, don’t be surprised if the Big Ten has four teams in the College Football Playoff.

Oregon is locked into the CFP, Penn State is on bubble watch

The top-ranked Ducks finally put an end to the “will they, won’t they” debate over Michigan’s inconsistent season. Oregon, barring disaster, will be heading to Indianapolis to vie for the Big Ten title and can expect to be playing in the College Football Playoff after that.

Penn State, on the other hand, is far from being eliminated, but it’s certainly going to need perfection down the stretch to guarantee itself a berth. With Ohio State owning the head-to-head tie-breaker and Indiana remaining undefeated on the year, the Nittany Lions will need some help if it wants to play for the Big Ten title. Only a harsh committee can keep them from playing postseason football if they take care of business.

Georgia has a quarterback problem

If you just look at the 34-20 score, you’d have no idea No. 2 Georgia was on upset watch for almost three quarters. Quarterback Carson Beck threw two interceptions in the first half, giving Florida the opportunity and momentum to take a surprising 13-6 lead into halftime.

The story of the second half was all Georgia’s defense, despite Beck throwing a third pick of the game. A fumbled field goal hold and an interception got the Bulldogs back in the game and sparked them to outscore Florida 28-7. Excluding the loss to Alabama, this marks the second time this year Georgia was on upset alert (Week 3 vs. Kentucky). It’s still in the SEC and national title race but for how much longer given Beck’s inconsistency?

Miami is playing with fire, when will it get burnt?

Don’t let the 22-point win fool you, No. 5 Miami was in deep trouble at one point against Duke. That’s the fourth time in its last five games that it has trailed or been on the verge of an upset. That kind of play is not sustainable for a prospective conference champion at this stage in the season.

Giving up 31 to Duke is also a concerning trend for the Hurricanes. It’s also the fourth time this year that the team has given up at least that many points in a game. Heisman-contending quarterback Cam Ward may have led Miami to another comeback win, but the cracks are more than noticeable with just three games remaining.

The Big 12 title is BYU’s to lose

The No. 9 Cougars didn’t even play this week, and their prospects immediately surged. With No. 11 Iowa State’s 23-22 loss to Texas Tech, the race for the Big 12 title will surely come down to BYU and whoever survives the last few weeks.

Since 2017, every Big 12 title game except one (2019) has featured a two-loss team. Colorado (6-2), Kansas State (7-2) and Arizona State (6-2) are all back in the mix for that second berth with the Cyclones (7-1).

SMU is an ACC contender, Clemson is outside the CFP bubble

The ACC feels like Miami’s to lose at this point, but No. 20 SMU has emerged from dark horse status to a true contender. After dominating No. 18 Pittsburgh 48-25, the Mustangs could be the Hurricanes’ foil. If it takes care of business in its final three games, SMU could find itself on the College Football Playoff bubble with just one regular season loss.

On the other side of the bubble, No. 11 Clemson has all but been eliminated. An embarrassing 33-21 loss to Louisville means the Tigers need a lot of help in November to get back to Charlotte for the ACC title game. Keep in mind they still have Pittsburgh and in-state rival South Carolina left to play. A conference title is the only thing that will get head coach Dabo Swinney into the playoff and out of the dog house.

Who wins the SEC is anyone’s guess now

Speaking of South Carolina, the Gamecocks just threw a gigantic wrench in the SEC title race with their 44-20 upset over No. 10 Texas A&M. No more teams are undefeated in conference play, meaning there are eight — yes, eight — teams with a chance at qualifying for the SEC title game.

That means next week’s Alabama vs. LSU matchup (Nov. 9) becomes an elimination game, with Georgia and Texas having the inside track to a rematch in Atlanta. Heck, even Vanderbilt has an outside shot at shocking the world. Any clarity on who will be crowned SEC champs, let alone how many teams the conference could get into the College Football Playoff, will have to wait until later this month.