The World Health Organization (WHO) just published Dr. Ioannidis study. The study, which was wrongly castigated by the totalitarian fanatics back in March, concludes that “the inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic.”
Unlike the estimates made earlier in the pandemic, the study finds that “In people < 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%… The inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic.”
The study also acknowledged some limitations. Based on the currently available data, the authors project that over half a billion people have been infected as of September 12, 2020, far more than the approximately 29 million documented laboratory-confirmed cases. According to their findings, the authors further noted that “most locations probably have an infection fatality rate less than 0.20% and with appropriate, precise non-harmacological measures that selectively try to protect high-risk vulnerable populations and settings, the infection fatality rate may be brought even lower.”
Below is the Abstract of the report.
Objective To estimate the infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from seroprevalence data.
Methods I searched PubMed and preprint servers for COVID-19 seroprevalence studies with a sample size of >= 500 as of 9 September 2020. I also retrieved additional results of national studies from preliminary press releases and reports. I assessed the studies for design features and seroprevalence estimates. I estimated the infection fatality rate for each study by dividing the number of COVID-19 deaths by the number of people estimated to be infected in each region. I corrected for the number of antibody types tested (immunoglobin, IgG, IgM, IgA)
Results I included 61 studies (74 estimates) and eight preliminary national estimates. Seroprevalence estimates ranged from 0.02% to 53.40%. Infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 1.63%, corrected values from 0.00% to 1.54%. Across 51 locations, the median COVID-19 infection fatality rate was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%): the rate was
0.09% in locations with COVID-19 population mortality rates less than the global average (< 118 deaths/million), 0.20% in locations with 118–500 COVID-19 deaths/million people and 0.57% in locations with > 500 COVID-19 deaths/million people. In people < 70 years, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% with crude and corrected medians of 0.05%.
Conclusion The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 can vary substantially across different locations and this may reflect differences in population age structure and casemix of infected and deceased patients and other factors. The inferred infection fatality rates tended to be much lower than estimates made earlier in the pandemic.
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