Thanksgiving is just exactly one week from today, and grocery retailers are scurrying to make the most of, in the past, one of their busiest days. The question is just how they do it with social distancing and decreased occupancy limits in the stores.
No doubt, many grocers, and restaurants for that matter, are recommending a Thanksgiving prepared meal for takeout, that is customized to the number of people you’ll be feeding – since most of the Turkeys that are out there are 22 pounds and way too big for this years celebration and to have it delivered or pick up at curbside. The reality is that with so many restaurants either shut down or having to serve outdoors, Thanksgiving might just not be that appealing sitting in a winter coat, hat and scarf in many parts of the nation. Grocers are expecting even more traffic as people will be eating more Thanksgiving dinners at home this year – even if the number of people around the table is smaller.
A survey published yesterday by Numerator found that among turkey buyers 51% plan to celebrate Thanksgiving only with their household member. More than 8 in 10 (85%) will still buy Thanksgiving groceries in-store this year, and 15% plan to buy online (12% order online/pick up in store, 3% order online for delivery). Among Millenials and Gen Z just over one-third plan to celebrate Thanksgiving with only their household members and 9% plan to buy a whole turkey for the first time, and 7% are hosting Thanksgiving for the first time.
Chicago may well be taking the strongest measures that will effect grocers. The Chicago Tribune is reporting that as surging COVID-19 cases collide with Thanksgiving food shopping, the city warns of a crackdown on crowds at grocery stores.
Chicago goes into lockdown on Monday; as a result people have already started to do their supermarket shopping; and the result is that there are lines of people waiting outside in the 40-degree weather to get into the stores.
Chicago is taking this very seriously as its Mayor Lori Lightfoot is warning businesses including supermarkets that they will face fines and potentially be shut down if they don’t follow social distancing rules or properly manage crowds.
Chicago’s Department of Business Affairs and Consumer Protection plans to proactively investigate retail stores to ensure compliance with capacity limits and other COVID-19 regulations, which carry fines up to $10,000 for violations, spokesman Isaac Reichman said.
State and city rules cap essential businesses, such as grocery stores, at 50% occupancy and nonessential retailers, such as clothing stores, at 40%. Neither can have more than 50 people gathered at choke points, like checkout areas.
The Chicago Tribune reports that The Illinois
The strong threat from the Mayor’s office comes as Chicago’s COVID-19 cases are rapidly on the rise. Illinois reported 15,415 confirmed or probable cases last Friday and an average seven-day case positivity rate of 13.2%, up from 3.4% two months ago. As of Thursday it had more people hospitalized with COVID-19 than at any point during the first spike of infections in the spring.
San Francisco has rolled back indoor dining as they have seen their cases spike 250%.
Yesterday, most of California’s larger counties moved back to shutting down indoor dining and some other businesses. Iowa has ordered restaurants and bars to close at 10pm with a 15-person limit on indoor gatherings and a 30-person cap outdoors.
Oregon announced a two week freeze that ends December 2 and involves, among other things, making restaurants delivery- and take-out only, as well as limiting grocery stores and pharmacies to 75 percent capacity.
New Mexico Closed on-site dining – indoor or outdoor until November 30 – but restaurants can provide take-out and delivery.
Washington State ordered indoor dining closed until December 14.
New York and New Jersey has ordered indoor dining to close at 10pm.
In Maryland indoor dining which had been at 75% capacity has now been lowered to 50%.
A team of research from Stanford University created a computer model that accurately predicted the spread of COVID-19 in 10 major cities in May by Analyzing three factors that drive infection risk: where people go in hte course of a day, how long they stay there and how many other people are there at the same time. They traced the movements of 98 million Americans in 10 of the largest metropolitan areas through a half a million different establishments, from restaurants and fitness centers to pet stores and new card dealerships. Stanford University computer scientist Jure Leskovec, who led the effort, reported that restaurants were by far the riskiest places.
Technology is moving at breakneck speed to help shoppers navigate where tehy should and should not go.
Supermarkets are doing their best to ensure that their stores will be stocked with product for the holidays season, but we may still see some shortages. Stephanie Schultz, MSM, RDN, CD and Director of Marketing for Festival Foods in Wisconsin told me because of shortages of packaging materials that food manufacturers use in their manufacturing processes like the plastics and lids for jarred spices, the lids for pickle jars, and in Wisconsin especially, automobile window washer fluid that has a particular ingredient in short supply because it is also used in hand sanitizers and disinfectants.
Expect to see people shopping for their foods earlier this holiday season and using more curbside pick up and delivery for sure.
Even with it all – Happy Thanksgiving!
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